While the NOAA graphic above shows a potentially scary story, the full text description from NOAA doesn't. (bold text added by me)
2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Another tropical wave just the west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow development of this system is possible through late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Zanshin--would disagree--that first one looks to be going into the Gulf and has 50% chance of formation in 7 days. If it gets into the Gulf, the US could be in the crosshairs.
But this forum is discussing the Caribbean and potential of a hurricane in St. Martin. I agree that there's still a chance of the US mainland having an impact, it remains minimal.
I see this morning that second wave is basically gone, although there is another one lined up already. First one is down to 40% chance of formation this morning. Doesn't look to threaten SXM but since we live in Florida, as I say, we always watch anything headed for the Gulf.