TravelTalkOnline Forums Travel and Vacation Forums St. Maarten - St. Martin Tropical Wave in the central Atlantic

St. Maarten/ St. Martin is not in the path of this wave. Computer models have it passing south of SXM and 10 days out will be in the Gulf of Mexico.

https://spaghettimodels.com/

Been here too many times ( Earl 110 mph) and got out the day of Irma by the grace of God, we know to watch the little blimps off the coast of Africa

Was expecting some rain for the upcoming days, hopefully not as much as expected

mahokid--wow, that was certainly a lucky escape, getting out before Irma.

Hope your weather isn't too bad the next week.

While the NOAA graphic above shows a potentially scary story, the full text description from NOAA doesn't. (bold text added by me)

2. Near the Lesser Antilles and Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles remain disorganized.
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next few
days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week
while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and
continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter
part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

3. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Another tropical wave just the west of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible through late next week while
it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Zanshin--would disagree--that first one looks to be going into the Gulf and has 50% chance of formation in 7 days. If it gets into the Gulf, the US could be in the crosshairs.

To my eye the first storm appears to be headed south part of the Yucatan Peninsula, and will remain in the far southern part of the Gulf of Mexico.

Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula are in the crosshairs. Not the US.

Bill--hopefully for our sake, that is so. It just seems that often things get into the Gulf, and then all bets are off, as far as the ultimate path.

But this forum is discussing the Caribbean and potential of a hurricane in St. Martin. I agree that there's still a chance of the US mainland having an impact, it remains minimal.

I see this morning that second wave is basically gone, although there is another one lined up already. First one is down to 40% chance of formation this morning. Doesn't look to threaten SXM but since we live in Florida, as I say, we always watch anything headed for the Gulf.