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Be safe out there people!!


From the National Weather Service.

1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...KAREN NOT WELL ORGANIZED BUT HEADING TOWARD PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 64.8W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the British Virgin Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of Karen.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Karen was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 64.8 West. Karen is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected by Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Karen will move across the eastern Caribbean Sea today, and pass
pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Tuesday
morning. Karen will move over the western Atlantic to the north
of Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little overall change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions expected in the warning area by
Tuesday morning.

Rainfall: Karen is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations through Wednesday:

Northern Windward Islands...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm
totals 3 inches.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands...2 to 4 inches, isolated 8
inches.

Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches.

These rains may cause flash flooding and mudslides, especially in
mountainous areas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

As of this moment a Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is investigating Karen the 11am report should give us a more accurate forecast.

This one looks like a cistern filler for the BVI, but could get worse after that. Wonder if it could wobble and hit twice.

Anything’s possible, but the odds are against it due to the almost steady forecast

Now looking at Lorenzo - this is one busy season! Thank goodness most people have had a chance to rebuild and have roofs and windows now.

Lorenzo looks to be a fish storm. Hopefully no issue to the islands from him. I HOPE maybe he is the last for a while.. This season has been very stressful.

Looks better most models show Karen going more westerly then yesterday
https://stormcarib.com/models.php?snum=12

Just heard from the adorable Sandra who runs the beach bar and restaurant at The Sugar Mill. She dropped by CRC to check on some plants she had given us..she was not that worried about Karen and said CRC was buttoned up tight..all good news. Love to hear from others on island tomorrow ( Tuesday) when Karen drops by!

Karen has shifted more to the West and has been downgraded to a depression. Closest point of approach to Tortola is 126 miles.

Just checked Quito's webcam on CGB..does not look too bad at all so far. Beach and moorings deserted and some wind and low clouds..

The dinghy dock got beat to hell from the ground swell a couple days ago.

Any on island updates post Karen?

On STT, but since the worst part of Karen was West of us the BVI should be about the same.
We had waterfront flooding from storm surge, the Southern facing beaches and hillsides got tropical storm force winds but little damage was reported, some mudslides in isolated areas, not much tree damage, no inundating rain, some minor power outages -- certainly a concern ahead of time and most people prepared for worse conditions than we experienced.
Seas have calmed down, south facing beaches suffered erosion.

Sounds like not a huge deal, thank goodness. Thanks for the report.

But what the he!! is Karen up to now..looks like another left handed Lenny.

Our local weather guru says it looks like she’ll fizzle out....but she’ll still want to speak to a manager....

Even a tropical storm can cause significant damage: Honeymoon Beach, St. Thomas http://just2000.temp.domains/~sailinh5/tropical-storm-karen-devastates-honeymoon-beach/?fbclid=IwAR2LQA5PcZExYhQywjxGCYVqMNh6VwttOQEp90TnzESvhe753wwhF9JhDvc