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Tropical Storm ERIKA Public Advisory

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
800 AM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ERIKA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 56.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and a west to
west-northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours.
On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over
portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph
(75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast
during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
primarily to the east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area tonight and early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

According to a story in today's Daily Herald power and water may be cut off tonight, in order to prevent damage during the storm. Anyone on island, please take note and be prepared.

Interesting that it is a "warning" for Dutch side and a "watch" for French side

The 11:00 am advisory has TS warnings for both Dutch and French sides of the island. The projected track shows the center of the storm passing directly over Saba about 25 mile south of Philipsburg tomorrow morning with sustained winds of about 50 mph.

And this... "RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through
Friday morning."

So long as there is no heavy flooding, this would be a very good thing!

Prime Minister orders all businesses to close at midnight tonight