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BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2015 ATLANTIC
HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Danny
was located by satellite near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 44.8
West. Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19
km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Danny is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only
extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

Discussion about how it may weaken:

HURRICANE DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST THU AUG 20 2015

Danny's cloud pattern has continued to improve since the previous
advisory, and a 10 n mi diameter eye has become embedded in the
center of a small central dense overcast. Water vapor imagery
indicates that upper-level outflow has become more symmetrical. The
initial intensity of 65 kt is based on NHC objective Dvorak
classifications of T4.1-T4.2 using an eye feature. Conventional and
microwave satellite images indicate that Danny is an unusually small
tropical cyclone.

Satellite fixes indicate that Danny is now moving west-northwestward
or 295/10 kt. The latest model guidance remains in very good
agreement on Danny moving west-northwestward for the next 48-72
hours toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge along 60W
longitude. A mid- to upper-level trough north of Bermuda is forecast
by the global models to begin lifting out to the north in 96-120
hours, which should allow the subtropical ridge to the north of
Danny to build back westward, forcing Danny on a more westward track
on days 4 and 5. The NHC official forecast track is essentially an
update of the previous advisory through 72 hours, but was shifted a
little north of the previous track after that in agreement with the
consensus model TVCN.

Danny's compact size makes it subject to significant fluctuations in
strength, both up and down, and such fluctuations are notoriously
difficult to forecast. Low-shear conditions are expected to
continue for the next 36 hours or so, which argues for some further
strengthening during that time. However, the cyclone continues to be
surrounded by dry mid-level air, which could penetrate into the core
and disrupt the intensification process. By 48 hours and beyond, the
vertical wind shear is forecast to become southerly to southwesterly
and increase to near 15 kt. As a result, Danny is expected to be
weakening as it approaches the Leeward Island. The official
intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity somewhat higher and
earlier than the previous advisory, ending up close to the IVCN
consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 12.5N 44.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 46.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 14.0N 47.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 14.7N 49.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 15.2N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 16.0N 56.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 16.9N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 18.0N 66.6W 55 KT 65 MPH

Closest point of approach now listed as 55 miles from SXM, on Monday evening. By that time it is predicted to weaken, but be careful out there, people!

55 miles away is pretty damn close. praying for our island, and that everyone remains safe and sound.

Danny is currently very small. Hurricane winds only extend out 10 miles from the center. Don't think I've ever seen that before.

Very early yet.It can change quickly.

The 5 PM tracking takes it quite a bit further south than the previous one, but still only a tropical storm as it passes SXM..

Lets hope and pray it stays that way...... and as badly as the island needs the rain, even a tropical storm can create a lot of havoc due to flooding from excess water and water run-off.

This was expected, and still the thinking is that it will lose strenght in the next day or two:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...DANNY STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 48.2W
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of
Danny.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Danny was located
near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 48.2 West. Danny is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is
expected on Saturday or Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Danny is about to encounter a less conducive
environment, and weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. A
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Danny
late this afternoon.

Danny remains a tiny hurricane. Hurricane force winds extend
outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical storm
force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

As of the 2 PM special update, Danny is now a cat 3, at 115 mph, but still predicted to weaken to TS status before reaching the islands.

448
WTNT64 KNHC 211747
TCUAT4

HURRICANE DANNY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015
200 PM AST FRI AUG 21 2015

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DANNY IS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Danny
is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. The maximum winds are estimated to be 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts.

No additional intensification is expected, as Danny is moving into
an area of unfavorable upper-level winds, and a weakening trend is
expected to begin later today. Consequently, no adjustment to the
forecast intensities from the previous advisory is required.

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 48.6W
ABOUT 900 MI...1450 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Roberts

According to the proposed track on that map, Danny should pass over St. Kitts or Statia. That would put the eye 75 statute miles south of SXM.

From CNN right now: "Danny has likely peaked in intensity based on the signs of shear in the cloud pattern, stronger upper-level winds present west of the cyclone, and abundant nearby dry air. CNN's forecast track shows Danny could reach the Leeward Islands such as Guadeloupe and Montserrat as only a tropical storm around Monday morning."

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for portions of the nothern leeward islands, including St. Maarten.

Still awaiting the aircraft report, but the 11am advisory still is predicting just a tropical storm by the time it gets to the leeward islands. Danny has increased its forward speed since this morning and that is expected to continue to increase.

Even though -- still could be heavy rains and some pretty good wind. So be careful! Even a tropical storm can cause damage from flooding and downed power lines.

At this point the closest point of approach is 23 miles. St Thomas at 7 miles and it is going over the top of SJU at Tuesday at 11am. So if you have a flight thru SJU on Tuesday, you need to look at options NOW!

From the 5 PM advisory, Danny is now down to 75 MPH. And this statement:
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
"RAINFALL: Danny is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over
the Leeward Islands through Monday."
Let us hope so. Rainfall would be a great thing!

Let's all do a rain dance, but not a wind and flooding dance! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Grin.gif" alt="" />

Danny is back to a tropical storm, as of 8 PM.. But!! The latest track takes it right over SXM, on Monday evening. So, be careful everyone!!! Here's hoping the ilons get some rain from this and nothing else. ..

Hopes for rain in extreme drought Puerto Rico...

"The news was disheartening for Puerto Rico residents such as 88-year-old Gloria Rodriguez, who has struggled with water-rationing measures in which hundreds of thousands of people receive water only twice a week."

http://www.aol.com/article/2015/08/22/pu...Lid%3D713558805

Rain good....hurricane NOT!!

Predictions by the NHC issued at 11:00 pm Sat. place TS Danny over St Kitts and Nevis about 40-45 miles south of St. Martin Monday afternoon/early evening. At that point it will be a weak tropical storm or possibly even a tropical depression with winds of 40 mph or less. Rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are predicted for the Leeward Islands.

"Tropical Storm DANNY Public Advisory
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 23 2015

...DANNY CONTINUES TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.8N 57.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A tropical storm watch has been issued for Puerto Rico, Vieques,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected, in this case within the next 24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service."

My comment---Danny's track seems to be a bit south of the previous track and the closest point of approach at this point places SXM outside the limit of tropical storm force winds, in part due to the small size of the storm. Interesting that the tropical storm watch for St. Martin has been discontinued, but the one for Sint Maarten remains in effect.

Dutch side always a little late on the draw LOL
forecast for Danny is further south on each update. Checking stormcarib How Close Can it Get tool: Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 16.8N, 63.4W or about 88.7 miles (142.7 km) from your location. The estimated time of when the center of the storm will be at that location is in about 1 day, 6 hours and 45 minutes from now (Monday, August 24 at 5:48PM AST). It will be a tropical depression.

I seriously doubt we will see much from Danny at all. We probably won't even get much rain.

Praying for everyone on the Island. Just hoping you get the rain you need!

Yes, the CPA has been getting further away with each update. I do hope you at least get some rain.

98 L and another one, are right behind Danny... Looks like things will be interesting for a while yet..

2pm Sun. Tropical Update -
~TROPICAL STORM WATCH for SSS Islands,
TROPICAL STORM WARNING for Surrounding Islands~

As of 2pm, the CENTER of Tropical Storm Danny is...
* Located: 15.8N 58.1W (+/- 305 miles ESE of St. Maarten)
* Max. winds: 50mph
* Moving: W at 15mph
* Forecasted track: just south of St. Maarten on Monday, if it continues on its present track.

Tropical Storm Watch issued for: St. Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Warning issued for: Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours.

Danny is forecast to continue weakening slowly, yet still bring some rain & gusty winds; -- as of late tonight into Monday.

Are stores, restaurants and casinos closing tonight at 10 pm?
irina?

I read that yes everything was closing and school and government was closed tomorrow as well

Yes, B confirmed it to me.
Lock down.
Good luck. I just hope rain yes but no landslides.
irina

As of 5pm, the center of Tropical Storm Danny is…
* Located: 15.6 N 59.0 W (+/- 275 miles ESE of St. Maarten)
* Max. winds: 40mph
* Moving: W at 16mph
* Forecasted track: just south of St. Maarten on Monday, if it continues on its present track


Danny is forecast to continue weakening (possibly becoming a Tropical Depression within the next 24 hours), yet still bring some rain & gusty winds to the North-eastern Caribbean — as of late tonight into Monday.

island will be shut down tight as of 10 PM.
http://www.soualiganewsday.com/local/sou...her-notice.html

Actually, that order is only as to the Dutch side and the French side doesn't even have a tropical storm watch, as far as I know. So, I'm thinking things on the French side will be open, at least some of them. (Not advocating people put themselves in danger, but just facts..)

Closest point of approach now is listed at 128 miles from SXM at 5 PM tomorrow, so to me, this looks to be a non-event, except possibly as a rain-maker.

I think it is going to be a non event too Carol, and I even question how much rain we will get from danny.
the next one coming this way might end up being more of a problem for us. wait and watch

Yes, there are TWO potential storms lined up there..

The next one will be Erika. Almost certain to become a named storm and definitely needs to be watched close.

Lots of storms to watch coming up in line. I think Danny still needs attention since Gonzalo was down graded and soon after it was a hurricane without warning. Strange things can happen when Mother Nature gets involved! Hoping for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Danny is now back to a tropical depression and the tropical storm watch for SXM has been discontinued. But it looks like Erika could be a named storm as early as today!

Is everything still closed, or was that cancelled?