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#307091 10/11/2023 11:32 AM
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Manpot Offline OP
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..Keep an eye on Ts Sean and the yellow cross behind him. heading northwest right now but a slight bobble could put us too close for comfort..again..

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Manpot #307094 10/11/2023 12:29 PM
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Yes, Sean looks very much like Philippe did. Originally scheduled to be very much a fish storm, then starting to go straight west and possibly go close to the islands.


Carol Hill
Manpot #307098 10/11/2023 05:25 PM
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Its giving me a touch of the "Uh Oh's"..

Manpot #307108 10/12/2023 10:24 AM
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Last update shifts track well North from yesterday. Should have no effect on the BVI.

Manpot #307111 10/12/2023 11:59 AM
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Fingers and toes crossed it keeps going that way..

GeorgeC1 #307112 10/12/2023 12:13 PM
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Originally Posted by GeorgeC1
Last update shifts track well North from yesterday. Should have no effect on the BVI.

That is only the 72 hour forecast. The long term GEFS ensembles from Weathernerds shows that, after Sunday, Sean will possibly take a turn to the west and pick up speed, possibly reaching the BVI by next Thursday. However, the forecast tracks seem to vary widely. The black line is simply the average of all of the tracks.
[Linked Image]

Further, the GEFS ensembles for the disturbance farther to the east shows it possibly reaching this area by the following Sunday (October 22) with hurricane force. There is a lot more consistency in the forecast tracks for this system.
[Linked Image]



Manpot #307124 10/13/2023 07:31 AM
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The disturbance behind Sean concerns me.


Go Irish!!

Bill
Manpot #307130 10/13/2023 12:05 PM
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Me too..

Manpot #307131 10/13/2023 02:04 PM
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😳

Manpot #307133 10/13/2023 04:43 PM
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Latest NHC forecast has Sean not going very far and then dissipating. Way too early to start sweating about the other one. Tracking models can't really tell much until and unless a storm forms up.


Louis from Houston
Manpot #307276 10/17/2023 11:09 AM
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Invest 94 appears to want to swing north of us from the forecasts I am seeing


anyone seeing anything different?

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invest 94L.png
Manpot #307277 10/17/2023 11:14 AM
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Not as far to the North as I would like!

GeorgeC1 #307280 10/17/2023 12:58 PM
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Originally Posted by GeorgeC1
Not as far to the North as I would like!


Agree! And the forecast for all next week into the following weekend is RAIN. Yuck. Hope that changes.

Manpot #307288 10/18/2023 07:01 AM
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The Wednesday morning forecast shows it being close to the islands by Saturday. The forecast
strength is still up in the air, however.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

MIDiver #307289 10/18/2023 07:13 AM
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Originally Posted by MIDiver
Originally Posted by GeorgeC1
Not as far to the North as I would like!


Agree! And the forecast for all next week into the following weekend is RAIN. Yuck. Hope that changes.

Very dry here, we really could use the rain

MIDiver #307294 10/18/2023 09:03 AM
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Me too. I noticed a weather station I follow up by Scrub Island has recorded 7.29" of rain already in October. That's a ton.

VTSailor #307295 10/18/2023 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted by VTSailor
Me too. I noticed a weather station I follow up by Scrub Island has recorded 7.29" of rain already in October. That's a ton.

I believe that 7.29" for October was mostly from the brush by TS Philippe in early October. I live in PR and have a PWS; we've only had 1.21" here for October. But PR and the various VIs have had a very dry "wet season". My Tortola friends have been complaining about low cisterns all summer.

Manpot #307297 10/18/2023 09:48 AM
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I understand that the islands could use the rain, and “nice” rain would be welcome however the forecast calls for heavy rain and thunderstorms after the storm passage. W- Saturday next week. I know areas of Tortola had massive flooding with Phillipe (one of our favorite provisioners had it in both locations) and hoping that doesn’t occur for them again this weekend. We are trying to decide whether will will come in 10/24-11/1 as planned to check on our boat before the “season” officially begins. Not keen on spending half the time waiting out thunderstorms. 😟 Doubt we will schedule an October trip again.

Manpot #307302 10/18/2023 01:10 PM
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10/24 is way to far off to really forecast anything. Wait a few days before you cancel.

Manpot #307315 10/18/2023 07:02 PM
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Tammy should be the end of the tropical season for the BVI. Let's hope so!!!

Manpot #307332 10/19/2023 08:56 AM
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My tracking software shows the storms going north and missing the BVI by about 200-300 miles, so a bit of rain and some wind. Hope this is the end of hurricane season 2023


tpcook
Manpot #307355 10/19/2023 11:40 AM
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Going to close this one. Please consolidate all comments under the "Tammy" thread.


Carol Hill

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