Right. I’m supposed to fly down Monday 9/4 but fly home 9/10. Could change and fly home 9/7 - but 3 days. Granted we own the condo so not the end of the world. But a lot of work for 3 days!!!
I will be on the island till the third week of September. As I mentioned, in my last post, it is always good to be vigilant and monitor these systems. At this time, the system is one week away from possibly affecting SXM. Both marine weather apps continue to show the system going slightly north of SXM next Saturday. The GFS or European model shows a more westerly path going over top of SXM. These weather models vary because they all consider a current large high-pressure system in the north Atlantic. If the high-pressure weakens, the system will bend more north. If it strengthens and does not move, then the system will move more westerly.
Since these predictions are still one week away, a lot can happen.
The national hurricane center, which is always a good source, is always general in nature for a seven day forecast. They know that a seven day forecast can not be exact. A lot can happen in seven days with the track of a storm.
I am not a meteorologist, but it is always best to monitor and be aware of these systems as they get closer to see where they actually track.
It is always hard to cancel but better safe than sorry. It is most likely to brush SXM but get stalled out near the Bahamas? I have a trip planned to North Carolina which has computer models showing a direct hit on September 17th. Hurricane fatigue setting in and all I can do is wait and see.
We are scheduled to arrive next week on the 13th for 3 weeks. Guess we'll know the outcome before then. The folks at BSV said that they would work with us if something like this came up. Fingers crossed!
FORECASTED SHOULD PASS TO NORTH AND EAST OF ST. MAARTEN BY APPROXIMATELY 280 MILES.
TD 13 is FORECASTED to be a CAT 4 Hurricane on Saturday morning at 8 am when it is 280 miles to our north and east.
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2023
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A POWERFUL HURRICANE BY THE END OF THE WEEK...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 40.2W ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- None.
Interests in the Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 40.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few days.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to be a hurricane in a couple of days and could become a major hurricane in a few days.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None.
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