The conditions are not conducive to formation at this time of the season. I'm watching this wave and it might turn into a storm system around Martinique on Monday/Tuesday next week. That's important to me, since I'm in Martinique right now But we'll have a couple of days time as this wave moves across the Atlantic to let the spaghetti models start to look alike and give us a likely storm path. So now we have our ~14-day summer rhythm starting...
Hi Neil , we haven't been back to Anguilla way back but had great times at Meads bay and Frangappatie , sorry for the spelling mistake . Planning on coming one day and we have a good friend Wendy Samuel from Mary Land that has some suggestions for us but will love to meet you at your place and have some good local Anguillan food , nothing about fancy foods that we know about on St.Maarten lol.
As we enter early hurricane season, would just like to point out that the marine programs such as Predict Wind and Windy, are relatively accurate for longer range outcomes and predictions. Nothing is perfect, but I have been using these for many years. The current system coming off West Africa, as shown by the National hurricane centre is expected to develop into a cyclone. However, unlike the national hurricane center, both marine programs predict longer range outcomes, and both show the system, eventually bending northward away from the Caribbean. Hopefully that is the case. The screenshot from Windy that I have attached shows the system going in a northern direction, but passing within a couple hundred miles of SXM next Friday June 23.
If the spaghetti models line up, the SXM isn't going to get a storm, but mid week next week there will be 10+ waves coming from the NE - that's close enough to a north swell to make most of the beaches untenable for a bit.
The models are now looking closer to each other, and it isn't good news at all. The system will most likely develop and, while perhaps not a hurricane, strong winds and waves around a revolving centre will happen. The bad news is that it looks like next Thursday is landfall around Dominica. I'm just to the south and can see Dominica from here... I am going to get my boat ready for immediate travel and might flee to the south on Monday. But most of the time storm systems curve to the north - and it doesn't take much of a change in path at that distance to put St. Martin in the storm's path. NOAA Forecast 17/06/2023 Morning
Phil.....I also like Windy as it seems to generally be more accurate than other models. It now has it tracking further south. Still up in the air as to where it will actually go.
I was just reading a story regarding this very topic before I jumped on here. It was about the two main competing factors this season, a much warmer than normal Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico versus a sudden flip in the Pacific from three years of La Nina to El Nino that's also getting stronger faster than predicted. El Nino tends to be good for the Caribbean and the island we all love as the strong westerlies it creates tend to create shear and "blow the tops off" tropical cyclones, and also causes more storms to make an early turn into the North Atlantic and become fish storms. The discussion was about which major climate force would ultimately prevail this season. Historically, El Nino makes for a mild hurricane season...here's to hoping history repeats itself.
Last edited by gomer36; 06/17/202311:34 AM.
"We are tied to the ocean. And when we go back to the sea, whether it is to sail or to watch - we are going back from whence we came." ~ John F. Kennedy
Yep I see that Lee. Just have to keep an eye on it as it gets closer. Does not look like it will develop into a strong storm based on the models. But still, important to be aware that it’s out there. Quite early in the season.
Overnight the forecasts have changed significantly, now 3 of them have a CAT 3 hurricane, and 8 have a hurricane forecast. The ECMWF model has it passing over St. Croix midday next Saturday and the BVI will get over 30 knots of wind. The GFS model has a bigger hurricane, way out to the east and north and due to the wind circulation the BVI would only have 8 knots of wind on Saturday afternoon. I know which forecast I'd prefer (that's the "safety bias") but right now either is possible.
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But we'll have a couple of days time as this wave moves across the Atlantic to let the spaghetti models start to look alike and give us a likely storm path. So now we have our ~14-day summer rhythm starting...![[Linked Image]](https://zanshin-sailing.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/zanshin-transparent-black-logo-350x100-1-150x43.png){kind=logo}
![[Linked Image]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_7d0.png)
![[Linked Image]](https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/92L_intensity_latest.png)
