For those of you who follow the more advanced tropical storm forecasting models, this system may be important to keep an eye on as it is currently forecasted to become a tropical storm and approach Sint Maarten Sept 3-5. Winds 51 mph or Tropical storm force. The National Hurricane Center website is great but unfortunately only forecasts 5 days in advance. Of course these models that predict so far ahead the current systems in the Atlantic can change. But it is worth keeping an eye on this.
Since the first week in September is the ultimate in high season for hurricanes, it's always good to keep one eye on the future, but that is way too far away to get too worried about it yet. Hopefully will be no issue to SXM.
Thank you so much for posting this.! Much appreciated! We will be traveling to St Martin from 9/11 - 9/18 so will be keeping a close eye on things prior to leaving. We are all hoping for a good weather outcome, not just for our trip, but for the good folks on the island who have endured a lot.
Although this early Tropical Storm weather forecast indicates a storm will impact St Maarten next weekend, there is some positive news .
It is forecast to only have max winds of 50 mph, tropical storm force not hurricane force It is forecast to be a fast moving storm so it shouldn't be impacting the island for a long time Given this forecast is still more than a week out, it could move Direction and have less impact on St Martin.
Still important to be aware of all forecasts this time of year for the Caribbean. As I mentioned earlier , the National Hurricane Center which is a gold standard for weather prediction and forecasting, will only forecast cyclonic activity 5 days in advance . Other subscription weather forecasting models used for marine traffic forecast further in advance .
Totally agree on better to be prepared than surprised. Ahead of Irma, meteorologist friends referred me to Crown Weather / Rob Lightbown, who specializes in tropical weather predictions and they call him the "go-to guy." He's amazing.
As of this morning, the Marine weather future forecast for next weekend shows a tropical system forming and passing just north of St Martin. This has moved Slightly North of the forecasted path from a few days ago. It is forecast to intensify to a severe tropical storm or category 1 hurricane. Will probably be known as tropical storm Danielle or hurricane Danielle . As of September 5th Tuesday, it is forecast to be over the Bahamas.
It looks like Saint Martin would experience tropical storm winds but only for a short time based on this prediction. Of course time will tell but as I said before better to be prepared than surprised.
Unfortunately the National Hurricane Center will only forecast 5 days in advance. Other subscription marine traffic weather forecasting applications look ahead much further. Finally glad to see that the National Hurricane Center has changed the path cone to color orange from yellow in the last hour or so.
To be fair I don't expect anything major for this disturbance. As I'm seeing interest in this topic to see further in the future I made an account to this forum to share a website I check regularly: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models On the top right you can select the forecast run available 4 times a day. 0000Z 0600Z 12:00Z and 18:00Z. On the top of the page you can see the titles named GFS/GLOBAL/ENSEMBLE etc.. Below that you can see a white bar you can slide using the blue circle. The numbers on the right hand side 006/012/018/024 are the HOURS of forecast past the last run time. So let's say you are watching the runtime of 00Z Aug 28 and slide to 024 using the bar (or clicking on 024) you are watching the forecast of 00z on Mon, 29 of Aug 2022. On the left bottom of the page below the picture shown you can press REGIONS to select what area you are interested in. For St. Maarten/South and East USA it's best to check the North Atlantic region. To watch waves coming of Africa with a bit more detail you can use the Tropical Atlantic region.
These forecasts can be used as far as 384 hours/16 days into the future. Please remember that the further these predictions go the less accurate they become.
Updated information from this morning August 29,2022..
According to tropical forecasting models, the most likely path of this system is north of St Martin. Forecasting models from predict wind, windy.com and the National hurricane Center all seem to be similar.. the system will pass by north of St Martin to become a tropical storm called Danielle. It seems to stall before making landfall in Florida and stays over water in the Atlantic going up the East Coast. Mainly a "Fish" storm. All good news from a Saint Martin point of view. May get some rain and a bit of wind with a small chance of higher swells and beach erosion. But all of that would be manageable.
.
