TravelTalkOnline Forums Travel and Vacation Forums US VI and Puerto Rico USVI in October - safe or hurricane season?

Any other suggestions on where to go in October? Just need nice weather and a beach....

St John is the place for beautiful beaches.
Hurricane season is technically from June 1st to Nov 30th.
In general the chances of getting hit by a Hurricane are almost nil.
If anything you might have a Tropical depression which may last for a day or 2 or most probably you'll have all sunshine for your stay with a daily 5 minute shower.
So enjoy <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/toast.gif" alt="" />

We spend time in St. John around Halloween every year. Warm water and a bit of rain. If it helps with your worries, get travel insurance.

Cheers, RickG

As the other poster said, official hurricane season lasts until the end of November. Although I seem to recall that last year there may have even been a named storm after November 30? <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Crazy.gif" alt="" /> Regardless, there is no such thing as technically 100% SAFE from hurricanes until maybe January? Regardless, you can look at the number of incidents of named storms for your destination and see what the odds are. We have travelled to the Caribbean MANY MANY times in September and October, which are the height of the hurricane season. We have only had two of our trips affected by hurricanes. One basically didn't count, as it was a cruise in September 1995. Long time Caribbean observers will remember Hurricane Luis, one of the most damaging hurricanes ever in the Caribbean. We were scheduled to visit St Maarten and ST Thomas on that cruise. Instead, the ship diverted to the Western Caribbean, and while St. Thomas and St. Maarten were getting torn to shreds, the water in the western Caribbean was deathly calm and we had a lovely vacation. The only time a land vacation we have taken has been disrupted by a hurricane was in late November 1999, when Hurricane Lenny came to call on ST. John, and we had to leave a day early, to get out ahead of the storm. Lenny was a very late storm and was very unusual, in that it's movement was backwards of what hurricanes normally do. In short, NO, October is NOT safe from hurricane season, and October is in fact still fairly high for hurricane season. However, your chances are statistically pretty small, regardless of when you go. Make sure you purchase insurance and keep an eye on the weather. Traditionally, the ABC islands of Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao are more out of the hurricane loop than the more northern islands, so you would have LESS chance of a hurricane there, but still SOME chance. Enjoy, regardless of where you decide to go!

Hurricane Luis in 1995 did tear up St Martin but spared St Thomas -- however his sister Marilyn came the next week and did terrible damage in the Virgin Is.
The later in Oct. the better since the peak of hurricane activity is in mid - Sept and decreases steeply after that - trip insurance is an excellent peace of mind hedge.

As Carol said, Luis and Marilyn dealt the Caribbean a one-two punch in September, 1995. There have been other storms since, but I would have to look them up. Last year, we did not even have to move the boat to the mangroves (in expectation of a tropical storm or worse) once. And indications are that this coming season may be like it due to an El Nino.

So, October, especially the end, is a great time in the USVI. Many places are closed for September through around October 15th. Then things start gearing up for season, but still no crowds. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Wink.gif" alt="" />

Were you asking about specific places to stay?

We have been going to the Caribbean the first week of October (our anniversary week) for years. We have found it a great time to be there because the locals have usually returned and are excited to be back in paradise.

As for storms, we have had only one close call, and that was in Guadeloupe a few years back.

Never in the VI... Yet... <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

The risk factor can be best evaluated by the facts.
StormCarib does a great job of tracking historical historical hurricane data.

OK, I guess I forgot about Marilyn, as in my mind, I only remember Luis, as they were so close together. I actually thought they were only a couple of days apart, but don't remember now.

Carol: We sat and watched Luis run over St Maarten. We breathed a sigh of relief and were gathering items to donate to them as Marilyn appeared out of nowhere and hit us. FEMA was already on the ground because we were expecting to get hit by Luis. This is one of the reasons I feel strongly that all the Caribbean is in the same boat and need to work together. It was a horrible year and one I never want to see again.

Hurricane Omar was a strong hurricane that took an unusual southwest to northeast track through the eastern Caribbean Sea during October, 2008. Forming out of a tropical disturbance on October 13, Omar initially moved slowly in the eastern Caribbean Sea. By October 15, Omar began to quickly intensify as deep convection developed around the center of circulation. Later that day, an eye developed and the storm began to accelerate to the northeast. Early on October 16, Omar reached its peak intensity with winds of 130 mph (215 km/h) and a barometric pressure of 958 mbar (hPa; 28.29 inHg). Shortly after, the hurricane rapidly weakened to Category 1 intensity. After slightly re-strengthening the next day, Omar weakened to a tropical storm before degenerating into a non-convective low pressure area. The remnants of Omar persisted until October 21 at which time it dissipated to the west of the Azores.

Throughout the eastern Caribbean, Omar affected numerous islands, most of which only recorded minor impacts. Large swells and heavy rains impacted the ABC islands. Antigua and Barbuda sustained $54 million in damages, mainly on Antigua as nine homes were destroyed, several others damaged and many farms were inundated by flood waters. One person died in Puerto Rico after suffering a stress-induced cardiac arrest. The United States Virgin Islands also sustained significant damage, costing roughly $6 million. Numerous boats and homes were damaged and over 100 power poles were snapped. Total losses from the storm were estimated at $79 million.

For sure, 95 was a very tragic year.

if you want to read a great book about wrong way Lenny, I would suggest At the Mercy of the Sea by John Kretschmer

This comes up so much that I went and figured the odds.

They have been keeping track of hurricane strikes in St. Thomas for about 150 years. The peak of the season is very sharp and is the middle week of September. Because the peak is so sharp, there's a significant difference in the odds of a strike between early and late October.

By month, the odds of a named hurricane coming within 50 nautical miles of St. Thomas is 0.5% per week in July, 1% per week in August, 2% per week in September, 1% per week in October, and 0.5% per week in November. The odds are exceedingly small in any other month of the year.

It's worth noting that over the decades the probability of a hurricane in the Atlantic has slightly declined.

Last year was highly unusual in that there was not a single Atlantic hurricane. NOAA really missed the boat on that one... they were predicting an above average season!

Hope that helps.

Here's a graphic...

I forgot the name of the Hurricane around 1995 which stalled over St Maarten for over a day before moving on and caused massive destruction.
NOAA predicted Hurricane Luis to make landfall on eastern PR but they were wrong and it walloped St Thomas who were expecting tropical storm winds.

NOAA's Experts have been wrong many times.

Look down at the rest of this thread, as we were talking about Luis. Luis destroyed ST. Maarten/ST. Martin, but apparently it was Marilyn that took out ST Thomas.

Right, I got them mixed up.