TravelTalkOnline Forums Travel and Vacation Forums St. Maarten - St. Martin Scientific odds of catching Covid19 on an airplane

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/odds-catching-covid-19-flight-wellness-scn/index.html

Interesting finding. Selfishly I hope there’s still enough doubters out there that this doesn’t ruin my cheap airline ticket to SXM.

Personally, I would agree with the article. Planes have to be cleaner now than ever, throw in the reduced # of passengers and the strict requirements to even board the plane, I would not hesitate to fly. Many studies show the air filtration/circulation system onboard aircraft does an excellent job.
Like you, setting on reasonable airfare for Nov. but not really having a good feeling it is going to happen.

Interesting to look at the numbers
Article says odds of catching based on 2 hour domestic flight is 1/4300 for a full flight and 1/7700 with empty middle rows. Odds rise with longer flights – no odds noted for that scenario

I cannot comment on the science behind those numbers and if the numbers are only for the air flight or include any airport interaction
However based on US population [330 million] and published current daily cases [40,000], odds with just staying put are on average 1/8300.

I think that means a longer haul flight with some middle seats used, would have maybe the same potential as staying home
At least not worse if flying – if the article’s science holds up.

J&B

I was excited about this until I read the entire article. At the end Dr. Barnett, the statistician from MIT, said he wouldn't fly right now because he is 72 and, because of his age and gender, is at higher risk for covid. So am I.

This is an example of pseudoscientific BS. The learned professor calculates and cogitates and concludes that the odds are very small....in fact minute. BUT he would not fly now because......WTF. Looks like he does not believe his own analysis. Pure unadulterated BS. It's fine to not believe your analysis but it is not fine to not believe your analysis and then publish it. The man should lose his job.

Wait a minute, because his risk tolerance level is the not the same as yours you’re dismissing his analysis. The very analysis you used to basically dismiss the risk in question?

Having just flown 3 times in August, it’s still safer than driving.

This is one of those arguments which has nothing to do with SXM and which no one can convince someone else of their position, so will close this one here.