It actually says a lot. Its the HWRF model for Thursday morning that shows the eye of the storm crossing over the island. It also shows the storm's strength at 976 mb which would equate to a category 2 hurricane. Way too early to say yet as its still a tropical wave. Should not really focus on one model prediction though. The official 72 NHC forecast map still has it as a tropical wave on Wednesday, but does say possible tropical cyclone.
From the Government web page one hour aro. "** SPECIAL WEATHER BULLETIN ** DATE ISSUED: Monday, July 27 2020 Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure, approximately 1000 miles east-southeast of St Maarten, has become a little less organized since last night (Sunday night). However, environmental conditions are still expected to become favorable for development and a tropical depression or tropical storm will likely form within the next couple of days. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and could begin affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. ** Due to the high likelihood of cyclone formation, a tropical storm watch could be issued for St Maarten. A small craft advisory, flash flood advisory and severe wind advisory could go into effect for St. Maarten from Wednesday morning. * Residents and motorists in areas prone to flooding and rock falls should be vigilant and avoid these areas whenever possible. * Sea users and persons with interests along the coast should exercise extreme caution and secure their property. All sea users and persons close to the sea should make plans to take necessary action. The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor the progress of this system and keep the public updated accordingly. Members of the public are advised to monitor the updates of this system."
Great discussion from the Capital Weather Gang on the storm and the uncertainty of its strength and track. Bottom line: odds are if it crosses SXM it will be a low to moderate tropical storm. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/07/27/new-tropical-storm-is-likely-form-atlantic-hyperactive-hurricane-season-continues/?hpid=hp_national1-8-12_tropicalstorm123p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans&itid=hp_national1-8-12_tropicalstorm123p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
This 92L is a huge system that might be a good thing. It will take longer for this system to develop and get a strong center of circulation. It will pass over SXM still a mess but after that it could be a monster!
From the National Hurricane Center in Miami (they did spell St Maarten incorrectly and for sake of quoting I am leaving their error)
Quote
BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 53.7W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including Vieques, and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin.
The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
The government of St. Maartin has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maartin.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maartin
If you're not aware of it, Storm Carib has an interesting graphic, showing how close a particular storm is projected to come to a particular island. Usually it needs to be a named storm, to have it pre-filled in, but potential tropical cyclone 9 is filled in now.
Carol, not looking good for Montserrat. Projecting to pass within 6 miles. I was there a couple years ago, and they do't need anymore destruction. Beautiful place.
We closed the house up before bed last night. This morning, opened it all up again and enjoying having a nice breeze through the house and some rain squalls. So far.
Elaine ********************************* God Bless the broken road....
The system is large and there is some talk that it might split in two. One system going thru the Mona Passage in a similar track of Dorian and the second system into the GOM (Gulf of Mexico)??????
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