TravelTalkOnline Forums Travel and Vacation Forums British Virgin Islands Hurricane Watch now and Warning shortly

Starting a new thread about Irma. It now appears that the sharp turn north is not going to happen. St. Maartin is already under the warning, so BVI and USVI will be shortly. It is also quite possible based on the NHC discussions that Irma could grow into a Cat 4, before long.

We just need a small turn, a 50 mile miss distance will minimize damage.
G

Here's hoping..REALLY hoping..

We can only hope for an extra sharp turn north real soon. I did not see any suggestion that the turn would not happen. Based on what I read about the high, I have been starting to wonder.

This is the forecast for the open waters between St. Martin and Anagada. This would also leave Anguilla very exposed.


REST OF TODAY
East winds around 10 knots...

TONIGHT
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with
occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant Period 12 seconds.
Northeast swell 4 to 5 feet. Isolated showers.

TUESDAY
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with
occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant Period 12 seconds. East
swell 4 to 6 feet. Scattered showers through the day. Isolated
thunderstorms in the afternoon.

TUESDAY NIGHT
Tropical storm conditions possible with
hurricane conditions also possible. Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots
becoming north around 30 knots after midnight. Seas 8 to 10 feet
with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant Period 12 seconds.
East swell 4 to 8 feet. Numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY
Hurricane conditions possible. Northwest winds 40 to
50 knots with gusts to around 60 knots becoming west 70 to 80
knots with gusts to around 100 knots in the afternoon. Seas 18 to
20 feet with occasional seas up to 25 feet. Dominant Period 13
seconds. Northeast swell 7 to 12 feet. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms.

This one looks horrible. Hope all friends on island or with property, boats and homes, stay safe and escape damage.

Will be thinking of you all over the coming days.

There's another nasty looking orange cross behind Irma..

In Germany we say, Light Up a candle for the Bvi

That one will go North. The greater concern is some models(but not the reliable Euro) showing a storm popping up just south of Tortola.

The current track in spaghetti models show up k track about 20 miles south of Tortola. The rest are still to the north around anegada. Anyone have an idea what's up with the UKM

my prayers and best wishes go out to everyone down in the islands. Be safe.

Where do all the charter guests stay if they can't get off island? Some of the hotels, like Maria's, Village Cay, etc., must be pretty vulnerable.

The 5:00pm update has the eye located at 18.7N 64.1W in 48 hours from now. That looks to be less than 10 miles due east of Anegada. Not good.....

All depends... some may stay on boats at the dock, others hotels, some in panic will pay anything to get off the island, then there are always shelters just like the locals. Panic will certainly be an issue. The models are now showing extremely low pressures all the way to Florida and well inland into the US. If the mountains of Cuba or Hispaniola do not tear this beast apart the path of destruction will be very long. The key is always to find a place in the lee of something that will never move and where no mud slide or massive flash flood will find you. On some of these islands that can be a challenge.

If they are not off Tortola by now ferries are no longer an option.
USCG has declared USVI ports under Condition Yankee:
Closed to all commercial traffic.

Ferry Service between Charlotte Amalie Harbor, St. Thomas and Tortola BVI
•Smith Ferry’s last departure today will be at 3:30 p.m.
•CME Fast Ferry’s last departure today will be at 4:15 p.m.
There will be no further departures from downtown Charlotte Amalie to Tortola until the ports have been reopened by the USCG.

================
Ferry Service between Charlotte Amalie Harbor, St. Thomas and St. Croix, USVI
•The ferry service between St. Thomas and St. Croix is not operating.

================
Ferry Service between Urman Fredericks Marine Terminal, Red Hook and Tortola, BVI
•Interisland Boat Services’ last departure today will be at 4:30 p.m.
•Native Son’s last departure today will be at 5:00 p.m.
There will be no further departures from Red Hook to Tortola until the ports have been reopened by the USCG.

Where is the "Hurricane Hole"? Is it managed by the local government for all of the fleets or just a customary place where people move their boats?

Here is the open water forecast. This is what Anguilla and Anegada should expect. Sticking to the BVI disaster plan the BVI is expected to run a last chance ferry to Virgin Gorda and Beef Island from Anegada.


TUESDAY NIGHT
Tropical storm conditions possible with
hurricane conditions also possible. Northeast winds 20 to 25
knots. Seas 12 to 14 feet with occasional seas up to 17 feet.
Dominant Period 12 seconds. East swell 5 to 10 feet. Numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY
Hurricane conditions possible. Northwest winds 40 to
50 knots with gusts to around 60 knots becoming west 60 to 70
knots with gusts to around 85 knots in the afternoon. Seas over 20
feet with occasional seas up to 32 feet. Dominant Period 12
seconds. Northeast swell 10 to 15 feet. Showers and scattered
thunderstorms.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT
Hurricane conditions possible. South winds 40
to 50 knots with gusts to around 60 knots easing to 25 to 30 knots
after midnight. Seas over 20 feet with occasional seas up to 32
feet subsiding to 18 to 20 feet with occasional seas up to 24 feet
after midnight. Dominant Period 11 seconds. North swell 9 to 14
feet. Showers and scattered thunderstorms.

A couple of things.."Island "Jim Kelly has been housesitting for us and has CRC prepped for the storm. If anyone is stuck I believe CRC will hold up pretty well especially on the ground floor. If you are stuck and need a place let me know..no charge. Jim is moving to his place in Carrot Bay with our cat. If you need this contact me through here or malcolmboyes@earthlink.net Secondly it would be terrific if anyone on island could keep us updated as he storm hits as long as possible..thanks..stay safe..to be honest I would be happier to be there than here and have to watch from afar!

Paraquita Bay by Brandywine. You pay $350 up front plus your dues to the charter boat round table then a couple of hundred each year in dues or mooring fee per slot. There are not near enough to go around. But, enough to keep the industry in business until insurance and the builders can catch up.

http://www.bvimarineassociation.com/downloads/1607PARAQUITA%20BASE%20PLAN%2026%20Jun17.pdf

Very kind gesture,

Does TTOL do GIF?




Courtesy of BVI Weather

Hurricane Hole plan looks like quite the operation. Would be a good place for a webcam about now.

The 8pm update is posted along with a updated Tortola Forecast:


Wed100 % Precip. / 5.03 in

Major hurricane conditions likely. Bands of heavy rain containing strong gusty winds at times. High 84F. NW winds at 40 to 60 mph, increasing to 80 to 100 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 5 to 8 inches of rain expected.


Wed Night100 % Precip. / 4.01 in


Tropical storm or hurricane conditions likely. Bands of heavy rain containing strong gusty winds at times. Low 78F. S winds at 80 to 100 mph, decreasing to 40 to 60 mph. Chance of rain 100%. 3 to 5 inches of rain expected.

If the breeze does come around to the South in force any boats left at the docks and even many of the docks will be at risk of being piled up on the shore.

Just saw that BVI Governor urged evacuation of Anegada and will be providing means to take people to VG or Tortola. Wishing safety for all. JudyG

There will be two last chance Ferries at Noon on Tuesday taking people to Virgin Gorda and Tortola. The school on Anegada will be open as a public shelter as well as several public shelters on Tortola.

Malcom our thoughts and prayers are for all on Tortola to be safe and for sure CRC! I know how much you love that villa so good thoughts!

My heart is racing and I'm not currently in BVI, nor do I own property in BVI.

Thinking of everyone throughout the islands! Stay positive and stay safe!

Getting worse. Latest track forecast is between Virgin Gorda and Anegada <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" /> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/090514.shtml?gm_track#contents

Windguru-Anegada Passage showing seas building to 20ft from 1100-1400hr tomorrow. I hope everyone heeds the warning and moves to a more protected area, today.

Praying that is not accurate Beerman

My heart is with all of my friends here... our crew is praying with you!

Category 5 as of now.... <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" />
Thoughts and prayers from Maine.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/051147.shtml?

Cat V hurricane now. Without a track change this is not going to turn out well. Still hoping!
G

Hurricane Irma Special Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Irma.

NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recently
measured peak flight-level winds of around 170 kt and SFMR winds
of around 150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has
been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still
possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.

No change was made to the previous track or wind radii forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as
an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by
life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings
are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations
should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are
expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning
tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-
storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early
tomorrow.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later
this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 130 KT 150 MPH

Went to Stormcarib and entered the co-ordinates for our house, looking for how far away Irma would be in 18 hours. The answer came back: 0.0 miles! Wow!

Thoughts and prayers for all of our friends in the islands and FL. May good luck be with you all.

Be thankful for an early warning system. This season marks the 150th anniversary of the sinking of the Rhone.

Now cat 5. Prayers and best wishes to you all.

IRMA will be a pivotal moment for myself and all the people of the BVI. I suspect that most structures will not survive the storm. IRMA will be much worse that the storm that sunk the Rhone. The BVI will need a lot of help. Hoping that all my friends remain safe. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />