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or a few hrs before
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/...=0&ypos=200

Pure rubbish. There are no models that have any validity that far out in time.

While I see your point, why would they waste the MIPS to run them that far out? Worst case scenario? Or?

MIPs are more or less free these days.

Models might be good for long-term meso-scale trends, but no model can predict a week ahead with any semblance of reliability something as chaotic as birth and development of a storm.

Even after a tropical disturbance begins, none of the models can predict anything more than a 2 or 3 days ahead with any accuracy.

"Four" was an excellent example. It apparently had no internet connection and failed to read the predictions of what it was supposed to do.

you didn't really answer my question, though...why run the models so far out then?

Because they can. They could let the model run forever into the future if they wanted to. They probably do give some indication global-scale trends at 7 days. They also give some guidance about tracks of existing storms as far as 7 days out - the farther out, the less accurate.

But predicting the origin and track of a non-existent storm 7 days in the future is totally meaningless.

PERHAPS: Running the model out so far will ONEDAY result in a human saying; "Used to be the models were never accurate out to 5(6 or 7) days, but recently with advances in models, we NOW see that the MIP is resulting in some accuracy ".

Not there yet. Maybe some day!

Well said!