Stiv said:
... automobile transport would be a far greater threat.
Stiv:
So how do you go anywhere in the country if not by automobile? By foot or do you ride a donkey?
My friend agreed with you and used much of the same reasoning and more. His widow does not.
I couldn't change his opinion and I won't try to change yours. Just be careful if you bring a camera, you may be arrested for "practicing journalism without a license", and the U.S. embassy probably won't be notified of your arrest, nor will they be allowed to visit you.
As for anyone else here who may be interested,
back to the original posters question, of what Zimbabwe may be like if there is a change of government.
Who knows when it will change?
Regardless of the election just held, Robert Mugabe may hold on to power, as he has in the past, by fraud, intimidation, and suppressive force. And a new government may keep things under control for a while by being as suppressive as him.
IMHO, all I can see for any new government, for probably ten years or more, is insurmountable problems.
The economy is in shambles, its’ institutions corrupt, an any platform for any type of truly representative government based on the rule of law simply does not exist.
The backbone of Zimbabwe’s economy was agriculture. That productivity has been destroyed by the so-called “land reforms” in 2000. This is an important point, large scale commercial farming has been destroyed by “re-distribution” and that productivity will most likely NEVER recover. The country can no longer feed itself and will now always be dependant on imports and handouts, or have mass food shortages and all that goes with that.
As for the rest of the economy and the productivity of the people, in brief:
HyperInflation ! As of January 2008, the IMF estimates Zimbabwe’s annual inflation rate at 150,000 %. That is NOT a typo error.
Yes, One Hundred Fifty Thousand percent!
Unemployment at 85 %.
Life expectancy the lowest in the world.
World’s highest rate of HIV/AIDS (close to 25% of Zimbabwe’s population).
And it is estimated that 60% of the wildlife has died since 2000 due to poaching, massive deforestation, etc.
This was not too long ago, one of the richest countries in Africa, based on an economy dominated by Agriculture, that sector strength has been pretty much permanently destroyed.
Some time long in the future, possibly when some long term political stability has occurred, their best chance of an economic recovery, may be in exporting mineral wealth that the country does have. But that will require financial investment to occur.
And since this is a travel forum, here are my final thoughts on this.
IMHO, Zimbabwe is a powder keg just waiting to EXPLODE !
And when it does you don’t want to be there.
Possibly mass riots, mob rule, civil war, paramilitary atrocities, massive food and fuel shortages, regional warlords, etc.
A ticking time-bomb, that nobody knows when it will go off.
It is a land-locked county, and if you think the U.S. Marines will come and rescue you,
think more in terms of another African nation, Somalia, and “Black-Hawk down”.
