TravelTalkOnline Forums Travel and Vacation Forums British Virgin Islands Covid 19 infections in BVI

The AZ vaccine doesn't require sub-zero storage, just refrigeration at 36 to 46 degrees F. I think the low vaccination rate is due to vaccine "hesitancy," as it is in the ~1,000 US counties with vax rates of less than 30%. Those parts of the US are seeing similar rates of new cases. Ignorance and misinformation can have dire consequences.

Sunny--Certainly, even a vaccinated person can test positive. But a percentage of 30% of these cases vaccinated??????? Makes zero sense.

Baileau,

I think you perhaps again took my post to think that it possibly was a reason for visitors to not follow masking, distancing and sanitation protocols as directed. In a month here I actually see tourists following the orders as well as locals, usually better. In the groceries I have been in the tourists are masked up, mostly properly and usually together in their family or group. Workers all have masks, but many are worn as chin warmers or skip wearing over their noses. Young guys coming in together to get snacks and drinks have masks kind of on, stay together talking into each other’s faces without any distance or concern except to have a mask somewhere near their face.

Other times I see people walking on the street in the hot sun, nobody even within yards and they are wearing a mask properly.

My point was and is being borne out by the numbers, this has little to do with tourists now and contact tracing and 11 pm to 5am curfews will be if not totally ineffective, nearly so.

I saw way too much of this back home. Yes if you can be super careful and stay home except for a necessary trip for groceries you were fairly safe.

State after state developed severe outbreaks at very different times. When you thought your area was getting away Scott free, the grim virus showed up and when it did in moderate number of cases it soon grew exponentially. Some states locked down a long time, some kept mask mandates throughout and others never had them .

If you look at the tables per million in cases in each state you see so much consistency around 100,000 cases. In deaths you see same with a little more variation at about 2000 deaths per million.

There was great variation when the virus struck and opinions on how the different states responded, When it did however it did so with a vengeance and a quick spike up. Several weeks it was like the plague in the community. And then plateau and a quick slide down in cases while hospitalizations and deaths followed the decline a bit later.

So a guess would be based on above about 2000 positive tested cases here over a course of a few weeks.

There is not a reason in the world not to use all the mitigation they can. I do believe many like back in the states until it exploded in their locality think these measures are sufficient. That is unlikely IMO and rate of progression bears that out.

Most studies here in the UK seem to indicate around 70% effectiveness against symptomatic disease for one dose of Astra Zeneca and maybe 80% for Pfizer. So seems about right that 30% of infections are partially vaccinated. Especially since people in the BVI were mostly pretty late getting their first dose and are now exposed to more infectious variants.

Per their Facebook page, Quito's is closed due to their unvaccinated General Manager contracting COVID.

It does not actually say that. They are closed today only. The COVID posting was only to warn people that they should get tested if they were in contact with Albert and to encourage people to get vaccinated.

It does seem high. I read recently that the Chinese vaccines had about a 50% efficacy rate in preventing disease..they published no studies and data was from what happened in areas it was used. The good news it still greatly decreased hospitalization and death.

The rna vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna had much great higher protection rates but the work was done prior to some new variants. Though they say it is protective against those variants it’s not clear that it is absolutely effective in preventing infection.

AsteaZeneca vaccine is closer to the Chinese vaccines in its development but was throughly tested. I forgot the trials but I think it was in the 70-80% area on the first iteration of Covid. My guess would be it is a good vaccine that is between the Chinese and mRNA vaccines in efficacy. So though there might be more breaks in protection it quite likely will prevent most severe cases and death.

WillL-

Thanks for your clarification on mitigation...

Mike--I think that is very low for Pfizer, as studies in the US put it's efficacy at 95%, approximately. Don't really know anything about Astra Zeneca..

558 active now

That means that almost 2% of the BVI population is currently known to be infected. I've been trying to reach the people responsible for outbound clearances with no luck so far; I'm worried that the outbreak will continue unabated and that the BVI will be put on a travel blacklist.

Zanshin, not an unreasonable concern. My understanding was they could only process 500 tests/day. Between the testing constraints and 60 infected BVIHSA staff, things must be very tough.

659 today

Oh my....... Jason do you think additional protocols, or a lockdown, is coming?

Tonight at Indigo House they said that restaurant closures might be imposed soon.

They already have restaurants restricted to 25 people including staff so I don’t think closures will help much. It’s the mass indoor events that seem to have been the spreaders. They are mostly shut down now but it will take a while to see the impact. That said, I did put about 3 weeks of food in my freezer last week since logic is not always the driving force here.

8 people hospitalized is actually a worse measurement than the active case count. To date, we haven’t had any before with the exception of the 1 death but that patient presented too late for the hospital to help.

I'm going to stock up on important stuff today (beer, wine) - I've got enough food aboard for a while and still have my iron reserves (military rations in the form of MREs). I'm more worried about the borders shutting down as I want to travel west and south next week.

I am planning to travel back to Sonoma via St Thomas on July 21 and hope this does not impact that.

Zanshin--are you still trying to get out?

821 now

Wow. wow. wow. I'm thinking there were a lot of people who were sick before and didn't bother to get tested..

Yes, waiting on e-mail permission from the ministry of immigration... I'm not particularly optimistic about my chances of a response before I overstay my entry permit!

The following article contains the factual information about the course of the current outbreak, but the really frightening part are the user comments...

http://www.virginislandsnewsonline.com/en/news/-659-active-covid-cases-recorded-in-vi-8-hospitalised

The comments are always the best part here.

Comments are freaking scary.

Zanshin--best of luck.

Ain't that the truth! I'm wishing I'd started a bush tea business. That or aloe juice. Sell it as a sure-fire way to protect the family jewels - or whatever other harm the vaccine is reputed to do.

Now at 821 confirmed cases - http://www.virginislandsnewsonline.com/en/news/821-active-cases-of-covid-19-now-recorded-in-vi

I'm pretty happy to be aboard a boat and somewhat distanced from the general population. Except if Mal gets sick, then I'm SOL!

Another death and I’d guess when next announced close to a thousand cases. This is what has been seen in the states when it hits. I suspect when they do the testing it will be the delta variant that is latest and most virulent. The alpha variant was much more transmissible than the original wuhan strain and this one is supposed to be twice as infective as the alpha strain.

One article said, the average wuhan strain case infected two people. The delta they believe infects 7 to 8 with each case as the epidemic takes hold in a community. Oddly enough the delta strain is hitting hard in the missouri Ozarks where we have a place on lake taneycomo., near Branson. They like here have only about thirty percent vaccinated and are exploding with cases.

Many of their hospitalized cases are much younger than the original surges in the states. Hopefully that is because the older people were bright enough to get vaccinated. I hope that is the case here because it is going to pretty much go where it wants over the next several weeks. Hospitalization and sadly deaths will be increasing over next several days.

https://www.bviplatinum.com/news.php?articleId=32809

We are on VG and scheduled to fly out Wednesday. I’m a little concerned that testing will be overrun . I happened to drive by the clinic here today and though they say the testing is from 10 am to noon, there was a long line at 130 still getting tested.

I’m not in the business of giving advice, but personally if I could postpone a trip I would likely do so. They are going to have their hands full medically into hurricane season. The good news if there is any with this debacle is that regardless of vaccination status these spikes go up rapidly, plateau, and then drop very quickly in every community. I would think it will be all over by October.

They are also reporting here that the cases are largely in the younger population.

That’s good to hear Jason. Perhaps many of the older group got the shots.

I'd be very surprised if that was the case. The person that passed this morning was 72 and most of the older people I've spoken to are not taking the vaccine.

I think the medical team was just reporting that this surge (that we assume is Delta) is impacting more young people than Alpha did.

Time will tell. Today's statistics should be interesting. The 821 number only included testing thru 6 July!

Sadly we likely know what were going to see based on the past year. Changes weren't made until just today right? Or the last couple days. So for the next week at least there will be a continued increase in cases most likely. The big question is how will this impact entry/exit. It's all sad because unless they ran out of vaccines (which doesn't seem to be the case) this could have been completely avoided.

From the contract tracing it would appear the spots are all places (clubs) where young people hang out in close quarters so not surprising it is young people this round. Of note was the Willy T on 2 dates. We were in the Bight that last date and the Willy T was packed with people coming over on fast boats from Tortola. I have never seen it so crowded with boats

We were at the Willy T for a drink on 6/29 before dinner at the Bight. Not an “exposure” day but..... Mostly people from moored boats that day - just one go fast - but I am now regretting it. It was a subpar experience and doubt we would ever go back. To the Bight as well - worst dinner in our 2 weeks in BVI.

Unfortunately though in addition to the clubs they named an elder care facility, a healthcare facility and employees of a grocery store last week. Once it has a foothold like this 50 to 1000 cases (if 800 some are test positive there are many more infected) in a week or so, it’s going everywhere. Any member of a household will nearly certainly infect all unvaccinated members.

Every unvaccinated person has to be careful every moment. The virus just has to be lucky once.

I was dismayed to hear Jason’s information that the elderly did not in large numbers take the vaccine. This won’t go well for them. Bout two to three weeks the hospital and the tents they have set up I would bet will be full. It’s so sad when this takes off. I hope I am wrong.

Just so you know. By no means is my observation based on real statistics. It's just the people I have talked to aren't willing to consider. I've had many conversation with people in the 40-50 age range that seemed interested in listening and ultimately got vaccinated. The group below and above that age range seemed unwilling to discuss. It's frustrating because now my life and income is impacted. During the original rounds of the pandemic I understood and was willing to suffer through it with everyone else but now it's just crazy. We now have a solution but people just can't be made to understand. Sadly now, everyone has staked their position and it's a matter of pride or stubbornness and unwilling to reconsider. Going to be an interesting ride.

Stopped by CGB this afternoon for a sunset walk and many of the visitors are still unmasked walking into restaurants. Universal response is "don't worry, I'm vaccinated".

Premier scheduled to make a statement at 8:30.....still waiting.

Sitting here on the balcony of CRC..9 on a Saturday..not a noise but the sound of breaking surf. Normally that would be a wonderful thing. Twinkling stars and an occasional birdsong. Now to me it means one thing ..the sound of calamity meeting stupidity. The BVIslanders who have refused to get the shot have wrecked the dream for themselves and many others.I feel for all who are suffering..but nothing for those who have put us all in this mess. Folks like Jason who have worked so hard to welcome folks and promote the BVI's do not deserve this. Shame on you who refuse the help that is being given and is so in demand by others. Shame on you..

That’s really sad Jason. It’s the same back home. Once someone stakes out a position they are adamant. The difference is with all the severe illness and death many older people had seen the devastation before the vaccine became available and in most areas there was good compliance with older people.

Here I think it was similar to our area that didn’t have much trouble during the spring, summer and early fall. Though there was no vaccine, there was a false sense of security in that nothing bad had happened and many thought it would not. Then it hit and hit hard. Everyone knew someone in hospital or dead from it.

I’m sorry to hear that anyone regardless of their vaccine status is not complying with the rules. It has to be very frustrating and our friends with businesses along with you here have been through so much.