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Tropical storm warning issued
#230717
07/27/2020 01:07 PM
07/27/2020 01:07 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,552 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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This one definitely could come close. Some predictions have said a hurricane over the Northern Leewards. Dr. Soc from St. Maarten has recorded some information from Crown Weather regarding the system. Link
Last edited by Carol_Hill; 07/28/2020 11:43 AM.
Carol Hill
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued
[Re: sail445]
#230731
07/27/2020 02:59 PM
07/27/2020 02:59 PM
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Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 559 Apex, NC
agrimsrud
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Most of the spaghetti models show it heading to the northern islands spaghettimodels.com And the intensity prediction appears to be tropical storm force winds. Bad enough but shouldn't be a major event other than possibly rain.
Life's short - sail more!
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued
[Re: agrimsrud]
#230735
07/27/2020 03:05 PM
07/27/2020 03:05 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003
sail445
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Most of the spaghetti models show it heading to the northern islands spaghettimodels.com And the intensity prediction appears to be tropical storm force winds. Bad enough but shouldn't be a major event other than possibly rain. I hope you’re right, we’ll know in about 2 -3 days when they name it.
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued
[Re: Carol_Hill]
#230787
07/28/2020 11:43 AM
07/28/2020 11:43 AM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,552 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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From the 11 AM NHC Advisory
BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Tue Jul 28 2020
...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 53.7W ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Puerto Rico, including Vieques, and Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The government of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, the British Virgin Islands, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis.
The government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin.
The government of the Netherlands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Saba and St. Eustatius.
The government of St. Maartin has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Maartin.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis * Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maartin
Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of this system.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development and a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) primarily to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Leeward Islands on Wednesday and spread into the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will produce total rain accumulation of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches possible across the Windward Islands. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding.
NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.
$$ Forecaster Brown
Carol Hill
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued
[Re: RatmansWife]
#230795
07/28/2020 03:00 PM
07/28/2020 03:00 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,552 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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If you're not aware of it, Storm Carib has an interesting graphic, showing how close a particular storm is projected to come to a particular island. Usually it needs to be a named storm, to have it pre-filled in, but potential tropical cyclone 9 is filled in now. Link to Storm Carib
Carol Hill
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued
[Re: Manpot]
#230801
07/28/2020 03:37 PM
07/28/2020 03:37 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,552 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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You're welcome, Mal. I find many of the storm prediction sites are just too complicated for me to figure out. IF the storm is pre-filled in, Storm Carib is very user friendly.
Carol Hill
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued
[Re: JasonHelmbrecht]
#230882
07/29/2020 12:06 PM
07/29/2020 12:06 PM
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Joined: Aug 2000
Posts: 83,552 Central Florida!
Carol_Hill
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Doesn't look too bad so far. Guidance from today puts it a little further away from the BVI than yesterday, and still not a named storm.
Carol Hill
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Re: Tropical storm warning issued
[Re: bagsarepacked]
#231027
07/30/2020 07:51 PM
07/30/2020 07:51 PM
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Joined: Jul 2008
Posts: 3,003
sail445
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Malcom ~ 2020 is proving to not be for the faint of heart. I hate those yellow crosses!
This is Yellow Cross season, we’ll be seeing more of them in the next 2 months
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