NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center 5 mins · ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO THE FOURTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
NHC has upgraded Tropical Depression Five to Tropical Storm Dorian. It's centered as of 5 p.m. AST/EDT over the tropical Atlantic Ocean about 725 miles (1165 km) east-southeast of Barbados. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Dorian.
Dorian is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast on Sunday, and that motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the tropical cyclone is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. Gradual strengthening during the next few days is forecast, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.
Forecast models are pretty closely clustered therefore Dorian should really pass South. Problem is El Nino has ceased and basically now there is an highway for storms to form. A good weather page for hurricane tracking is spaghettimodels.com (Mike's page) you will find a lot of useful tools such as water temperatures, wind shear, steering currents, upper level winds etc. etc.
Thanks for the update. Pressure is still on the high side and sustained winds are 40 mph. So, for any cruise ships making port in Barbados, St. Lucia or Martinique they may want to alter course next week. But, this looks to be well south of St. Martin and even it makes hurricane status it will likely be no stronger than a Cat 1 storm. No need to change any plans if visiting SXM at this time.
Once more we owe you for local and accurate reporting of serious events We're all targets for rumors and unsubstantiated information. You help clarify the truth. Edward R. Murrow..."You are there". I know that most won't know that reference but some do. Kind of like National Enquirer vs. Fact Check. Thank you.
Computer models have it missing Haiti/ DR and just clipping Puerto Rico. TS Dorian then heads towards the bahamas and reaching Florida for the weekend. Here is a good link for Florida residents... https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando/weather/tropical
Lite rain for about 10 minutes here. Pretty bright out just now.
Meteorological Department St.Maarten 11 mins · PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST FOR ST. MAARTEN DATE ISSUED: Tuesday, August 27, 2019 @ 18:00 LST (22:00 UTC) VALID UNTIL: Wednesday evening (18:00 LST) August 28, 2019
WEATHER: Tonight through Wednesday evening: Generally cloudy with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
SURFACE WINDS: Tonight: Northeast to east with a moderate to fresh breeze of 13 to 20 miles per hour, and higher gusts. Wednesday: East to southeast with a gentle to moderate breeze of 10 to 18 miles per hour, and possible higher gusts.
SYNOPSIS: The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dorian has arrived over the local area. As a result, increased cloudiness and shower activity is expected through the forecast period. Some of these showers could be heavy at times and may be accompanied by thunderstorms, resulting in some street-flooding and/or rock slides in vulnerable areas. Residents and motorists in these areas are advised to exercise caution when in these areas. Conditions are expected to improve once Dorian starts to move farther west away from our shores by late Wednesday. Seas are expected to remain slight to moderate through the next few days, with waves peaking near 6 feet.
STATE OF THE SEA: Slight to Moderate WAVES/SWELLS: 4 to 6 feet
SPECIAL FEATURE: At 5:00 pm today, the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located about 194 miles south of St. Maarten, moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea tonight, and pass over or near western and central Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Some weakening is expected after Dorian moves across the higher terrain of Puerto Rico Wednesday night. The center of Tropical Storm Dorian is projected to pass about 142 miles southwest of St. Maarten early Wednesday, and thus poses no significant threat.
The Meteorological Department of St. Maarten will continue to monitor this system and keep the public updated accordingly.
OUTLOOK through Thursday evening: Partly cloudy to cloudy with isolated showers.
Elaine ********************************* God Bless the broken road....
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