TravelTalkOnline Forums Travel and Vacation Forums St. Maarten - St. Martin Hurricane Irma

Please continue here..

This will be a long night. Anyone with information is appreciated.

Prayers are with those on SXM/

There are so many posts and very little we can add. We are only occasional visitors but we love this island and it has been part of our lives for the past 15 years
We can only pray tonight for Saint Marteen.

We pray for everyone on the Island and their safety.
We Pray for all the injured and those who may be lost.
We pray for the relief workers and all who stand in harms way.
We pray for the caregivers and guidance for their hands to heal.

A different presentation of the wind forecast for TNCM (Princess Juliana) from aviationweather.gov

All times local
  From 11pm winds from 010 degrees 25KTs gusting 35KT
  From 1am from 330 degrees 55 gusting 75 kts
  From 3am 300 degrees 140 gusting 160 kts
  From 7am 260 degrees 90 gusting 120 kts
  FM 1pm 200 degrees 55 gusting 75Kts

This TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast) will be updated at aviationweather.gov at 2am EST

As of now from the NHC
urricane Irma Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

The satellite view of Irma remains quite spectacular, with an
extremely well-defined eye and a large, symmetrical CDO. Reports
from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure had fallen at about 1 mb per hour since this
morning, although very recently the deepening trend has leveled
off. Based on SFMR-observed winds from the aircraft, the current
intensity remains at 160 kt. [color:"red"]The Meteo-France radar imagery
suggests a concentric eyewall structure and observations from the
aircraft hinted at a secondary wind maximum. If an eyewall
replacement becomes more definitive, this would likely halt
additional strengthening, and could even lead to some weakening.[/color]
The official intensity forecast is near or above the model
consensus. Given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment,
Irma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next
few days.

Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days. A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday. In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier. The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution. Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

According to the Weather Channel on U.S. TV.....
For SXM Wednesday morning:

Wind: 120+ m.p.h. Gusts
Rain: 12 to 18 inches
Storm Surge up to 11 feet

be safe everyone.

Latest 11 PM NHC track shows a ever so slight shift north...center line is now over Oyster Bay....Like it really makes a difference in the big picture...one can hope.

From Island 92 radio just moments ago - NHC has advised that maximum winds near 140-145 mph projected at 4am SXM time. So this storm is coming sooner than expected. Same broadcast also mentioned the eye of the Irma storm projected to only be 4 miles north of St. Martin

Prayers for everyone on the island and for those with friends/family/pets and property there. Not sure we will be able to sleep tonight as we are so concerned about the Island and all that are there.

Strong prayers tonight for St. Martin.

There's a traveler in St. Martin posting updates via Twitter from the island.

follow @woolfallalex on Twitter

Laser101.fm actually talking about storm with locals.

Island92 playing music, nice music, but a bit like band on the ship analogy

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA GETTING VERY
CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM ESE OF BARBUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Guadeloupe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as
well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Irma is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions
of the northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move
near or over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and
pass near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 916 mb (27.05 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm
conditions beginning within a couple of hours. Hurricane
conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area
in the British and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday,
with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Hurricane
conditions are expected to begin within the hurricane warning area
in the Dominican Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning Wednesday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and
St. Croix...2 to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations
Wednesday through Saturday:

Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20
inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic during the next several days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

Good point PelicanPirate and true analogy. Thanks for positing about http://laser101.fm/ much more information on IRMA than Island92

Center of the eye approx 126nm SE (heading 120) from Grand Case airport

Yes, very good coverage on Laser 101! Right now warning people about not starting a generator in the house, don't peek out the window at the storm, don't be lulled into thinking it is over when it is only the eye with half yet to come, etc. etc. True public service announcements and taking calls from local residents about shelters, etc.

. All the prep has been done and most are hunkered down.

Eye center about 94nm from grand case airport.

Hoping for more turn thru the night.
<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />

Radio report at 142am that island of anguilla went dark as viewed from SXM mountain top. Power out.

Also reporting Antigua and Barbuda experiencing extreme winds. They are red on the satellite at present.

Really rocking and rolling now! Can hear some branches coming down.

I believe the eye went over poor Barbuda.

Can't imagine what the folks in Cole Bay are going through right now.

Surprisingly, the Maho Beach cam is still up.

Good Morning J.D. - watching and waiting for news -

Really really really strong now!!

They finally mentioned Sint Maarten by name on 1010 wins news - due for direct hit shortly according to the report.

Be safe

I'm following twitter feed. There is a guy that was suggested here ,, that is tweeting from a stairwell at the WESTIN. It appears they were evacuated to the stairwell about 5 a.m. Said you can hear the screaming of things being hurled at the building. In his words 'terrifying " Praying for this to be over quickly.

Unfortunately they are just getting started. Track has shifted back to a direct hit and winds are still 185. Prayers for their safety and a quick relief response after.

According to TWC the eye is passing between Sint Maarten and Anguilla now.

Here is a video just posted by Anish Chugani who is on island.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0By5ZOlyqZNWEWnhBMEhaWGVOQnM

The eye encompasses all of st barths to the grand case airport and princess juliana airport right now.

Tried 3 radio stations, none online.

oh my.

Here is another posted on Facebook Live from Meteoroligia Del Caribe

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0By5ZOlyqZNWEQWZUdWxNNThUWFk

Here is another video from Anish Chugani.

https://drive.google.com/open?id=0By5ZOlyqZNWEUGFqTHlIdTR5dzQ

OMG

videos... <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/cry.gif" alt="" />

https://fr-fr.facebook.com/RCIGUADELOUPE971/

At 750 am, Eye wall is right over SXM, north to south. orient beach side is in the eye.

Other half of Irma to endure.

This person is posting photos this morning. Some he is taking himself, some friends are sending him. He urges everyone to stop live streaming and go back inside for the "other side" of the storm.
https://www.facebook.com/marlon.beauperthuy?fref=ufi

Also, FWIW - i had luck picking up radio stations last night using the TuneIn app (free) even when I couldn't access them online from a desktop.

Tim......Where are you staying?????

Downloaded the tunedin app, but it wants 9.99/month or 99.99/year for a free trial. They know ill forget to cancel.

Youll have to provide updates

mprevo...things on Google Drive are getting "exceeds views" and no content

That's bizarre; I got no such prompt and am just using their regular version free. I can't get a stream on anything right now (not surprisingly) but will continue to check.

Thx, his FB pictures show bad damage/flooding in Marigot and reports of damage at cost umless and atrium.

Simpson bay boats played with like toys it says. Still eye of storm.