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Kmon #139181 09/02/2017 11:28 AM
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This far out the only model with any reasonable track record is this one. Showing any BVI impact between 120 and 144 hours out. Which means Thursday at this point.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/tr24f120.php

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StormJib #139182 09/02/2017 12:46 PM
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This far out, the only way to predict the track is like this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3HOK6Z8A-M

tradewinds #139183 09/02/2017 02:19 PM
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<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" /><img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Rofl.gif" alt="" />


Carol Hill
Carol_Hill #139184 09/02/2017 03:08 PM
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Here is the latest 96 hour run:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=watl&dpdt=


Close to the BVI Irma will turn more north and excelerate. Then there is the strong chance of a second new system forming just south of Tortola and threatening the VI region on the 10th.

Last edited by StormJib; 09/02/2017 03:27 PM.
Kmon #139185 09/02/2017 07:15 PM
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We love to travel in shoulder season--fewer crowds and costs are down but HURRICANES are up. We are leaving Monday for PUnta Cana but we always get travel insurance for this time of year!

Our travel insurance provider GENERALI Travel insurance has been in contact with us re: Irama alerts. their website has alot of good travel info: https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources.html

Kmon #139186 09/02/2017 07:18 PM
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We love shoulder season travel because fewer crowds and prices are down but HURRICANES.

Our upcoming Punta Cana trip could be impacted by Irma. Our travel insurance GENERALI has alerted us. Their website has updates: https://www.generalitravelinsurance.com/travel-resources.html

Last edited by cargo13; 09/02/2017 07:19 PM.
cargo13 #139187 09/03/2017 06:13 AM
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Latest track has Irma passing to the North of the BVI as a category 4 storm. Guidance places it far enough N to avoid major damage but there will be significant wind and rain.
G

GeorgeC1 #139188 09/03/2017 07:01 AM
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Note the systems popping up after Irma passses.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?...=watl&dpdt=


Normally that is where an October or November storm would suddenly form?

GeorgeC1 #139189 09/03/2017 07:14 AM
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Quote
GeorgeC1 said:
Latest track has Irma passing to the North of the BVI as a category 4 storm. Guidance places it far enough N to avoid major damage but there will be significant wind and rain.
G


Hi George, when you posted lastest track, could you also post when the guidance was as at? And the source.

Tracks are changing too fast for comfort especially when distances of 50 miles may be very significant.

I note that the U.K. And NHC tracks keep continue shift south towards bvi as recent as the last minute or so.

Thank you.

Warren


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Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show).

https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///
GeorgeC1 #139190 09/03/2017 07:15 AM
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Storm Carib puts the CPA at something like 70 miles away now. Right now, it's a really small cyclone but predicted to get bigger quickly. I always forget, which side of the storm is the worst? Isn't the storm passing to left side the worst?


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Carol_Hill #139191 09/03/2017 07:20 AM
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Carol: The right forward quadrant has the strongest winds. That is why we always like these things to go north of us. The farther north the better, but north.


[color:"red"]NUTMEG[/color]
Today is the tomorrow you talked about yesterday.
Carol_Hill #139192 09/03/2017 07:20 AM
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Carol_Hill said:
I always forget, which side of the storm is the worst?

The right side of the track is worse (for tropical cyclones in the northern hemisphere)

Last edited by casailor53; 09/03/2017 07:22 AM.
Nutmeg #139193 09/03/2017 07:26 AM
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OK, thanks. STAY SAFE, everyone!


Carol Hill
warren460 #139194 09/03/2017 08:17 AM
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Pam and I will be going to the villa Sept 16-28 to get some work done. Last hurricane at the villa was 40 hours of hell. Blew well over 100 . Was not fun.


tpcook
tpcook #139195 09/03/2017 08:57 AM
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The info I posted was from updates in the last 3 hours. While the storm is predicted to become a CAT 4 it's a tight storm so a miss greater than 50 miles should limit damage. The thing that concerns me is the miss to the N is predicated on IRMA making a turn to the N. we need to start seeing that turn soon!
G

GeorgeC1 #139196 09/03/2017 10:13 AM
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Yes keep fingers crossed. The next 72 hours should determine a lot of things, based on the 11am NHC information.

From the NHC:
Quote
A strong high pressure ridge over the central Atlantic is steering
Irma west-southwestward or 255/12 kt. This general motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected during the next day or
so. After that time, Irma is forecast to turn westward, then
west-northwestward in about 72 hours as it approaches the western
portion of the ridge.


and

Quote
While Irma is currently a small hurricane, the guidance suggests it
should grow in size during the next 72 h. This will affect how soon
watches may be issued for portions of the Leeward and Virgin
Islands, and interests on those islands should continue to monitor
Irma's progress.


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Eric_Hill #139197 09/03/2017 11:14 AM
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The GFS and ECMWF are now tightly clustered. This morning's shift comes more into line with the ECMWF which has had the best run to run continuity so far. Anegada further east and north is the most at risk from Irma, Tortola and the USVI may be more threaten by the follow on storm. It is easy to get lost in the spaghetti. The ECMWF or Euro model is the only thing close to credible more than 72 hours out. The ECMWF is updating every three hours.

StormJib #139198 09/03/2017 12:52 PM
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Heard from Walker and Nancy who are on Anegada and prepping " Hidden Treasure"..after dodging serious damage from Harvey at their Houston home. "Island" Jim Kelly has been prepping CRC and is prepared to baby our cat " Farkle" through this...hoping for that turn north SOON!

warren460 #139199 09/03/2017 01:07 PM
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Not looking good right now. Need a North turn soon. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/duh.gif" alt="" />


tpcook
Manpot #139200 09/03/2017 01:31 PM
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Best wishes to Walker and Nancy and to Island Jim and to all on island!


Carol Hill
tpcook #139201 09/03/2017 03:48 PM
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Hello TP...we will be there also arriving on 9/16. We will be at Mahoe Bay......

connie #139202 09/03/2017 04:01 PM
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Latest NOA track is west, not wsw. Maybe that will help a bit.


Warren S/V Scuba Doo
Lagoon 50 (winner of best crewed yacht under 55 feet at the St. Thomas crewed yacht boat show).

https://www.cyabrochure.com/ebn/2307/pdyrX/6642/4///
connie #139203 09/03/2017 06:06 PM
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call me at the villa 5402442 cell or line 4957425


tpcook
tpcook #139204 09/03/2017 07:32 PM
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Storms seem later this year - that doesn't help
Let's all hope "luck-o-Tortola" holds against Irma
Best to all

CGB #139205 09/04/2017 06:46 AM
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I really don't like what I see from the various models this morning. Looks like they have shifted the track slightly south as it passes the BVI and are giving it a greater chance of a US landfall. Still plenty of time for a turn North. Keep the fingers crossed!

GeorgeC1 #139206 09/04/2017 06:56 AM
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latest track shows Virgin Gorda 21 miles from the track center. Not Good


tpcook
tpcook #139207 09/04/2017 07:07 AM
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Tortola 27 miles, St. Maarten 23. NOT good...


Carol Hill
Carol_Hill #139208 09/04/2017 07:31 AM
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I remember hearing that, boats are shuttled to the hurricane hole.my question is what is the criteria when or who makes the decision?

Carol_Hill #139209 09/04/2017 07:33 AM
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Not only 23 miles away, but when the winds are forecast to be 140 mph. And Ratman says, if we have damage for the first time in 50 years, it will be all my fault for having the view opened up! Not good at all.

tpcook #139210 09/04/2017 07:36 AM
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Irma has just been mentioned on BBC weather forecast in UK. This is a virtually unknown happening. Warning being given to anyone intending to visit Caribbean or Florida over coming days. Mentions Barbuda and BVI by name. We are praying for you all.

gracet03 #139211 09/04/2017 07:37 AM
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gracet03 said:
I remember hearing that, boats are shuttled to the hurricane hole.my question is what is the criteria when or who makes the decision?


That would be up to each charter company. Some companies place a portion of their fleet in hurricane storage starting in Aug so they don't have to move a entire fleet. I suspect boats are on the move today and assume all the charters have been recalled to base.
G

GeorgeC1 #139212 09/04/2017 08:23 AM
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I'm scared for Anegada.

SusanC #139213 09/04/2017 08:39 AM
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Here is an old picture. Moving and securing well more than 1,000 boats is very time consuming. Storm 101 is stripping all fabric above deck and chaffing gear like fire hose on all lines. Years ago the fleets would be shut down and stored well in advance. Virgin Traders and others in Nanny Cay usually pull the boats out of the water.


This

[Linked Image]



This link will take you to the assigned seating this season:

http://www.bvimarineassociation.com/downloads/1607PARAQUITA%20BASE%20PLAN%2026%20Jun17.pdf

Last edited by StormJib; 09/04/2017 08:46 AM.
StormJib #139214 09/04/2017 08:57 AM
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Amazing picture and hurricane plan. Thanks for posting this StormJib! Let's hope this works!!!

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Maria_and_Steve said:
Amazing picture and hurricane plan. Thanks for posting this StormJib! Let's hope this works!!!


Charlie Cary the Moorings founder from New Orleans started working on this plan back in 1973. The issue today is the much larger number of boats, the current business plan to stay open during Hurricane season, and the massive size of today's boats. You almost need a football team to take a main off the big cats. The guys on the docks have their work cut out for them taking the boats apart and then hopefully putting them back together again. Only one boat can travel through the cut at a time. The boats will be first queued to enter the bay, then queued again to come alongside and moor at the discretion of the wardens. MASSIVE undertaking for the boats still at the dock.

StormJib #139216 09/04/2017 09:31 AM
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Surprising to still see a few boats from the Moorings fleet mooching around on the Soggy Dollar Webcam (just one currently in shot).

...would the whole fleet not have been called back to the mother-ship by now?

Christo #139217 09/04/2017 09:51 AM
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Should be recalled today. If any are there this afternoon it's a problem.
G

GeorgeC1 #139218 09/04/2017 10:02 AM
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It seems like you would have to notified some of the bare-boaters
in person at their given location. Even though most companies give you a cell phone/ not everyone has it on. And, not everyone listens to the radio. Even though you caution them, even though they know its coming > there is always a few . . .

GeorgeC1 #139219 09/04/2017 10:03 AM
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There's a boat on the dock at Leverick, too.

GeorgeC1 #139220 09/04/2017 10:05 AM
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The actual forecast is sailable until well past nightfall Tuesday and even until midnight. I suspect they have given the charterers until at least noon today and maybe 3pm. All the Moorings boats cannot be secured simultaneously. The last thing they want is all the tourists trapped on their docks hoteling in the boats while the crew is trying to work. As long as the guests are allowed to stay on the boats at the dock no refund is due. If they are forced off the boats by the Moorings they Moorings takes some ownership for the financial problems. The Moorings Marketing company will delay some of the boats as long as they can. Everyone cannot return at the same time. Some will have no place to go. A sudden jog to the North and some may even try to ride the event out in the lee of Jost. A crew would be safe tying up and getting off the boat by 3 on Tuesday.

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