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#203115 08/24/2019 12:28 PM
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Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/28/2019 01:17 PM.
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sail445 #203129 08/24/2019 03:22 PM
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Well, September is almost here


Wes
s/v Sea Tiger (2022 Lagoon 46)
www.BareBoatBVI.com

sail445 #203149 08/25/2019 09:28 AM
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Going south. No problem


tpcook
tpcook #203152 08/25/2019 09:35 AM
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Hopefully no problem for the BVIs and SXM. Fingers crossed.


Carol Hill
tpcook #203153 08/25/2019 09:37 AM
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Not far enough south for me to have a warm and fuzzy at this point.

sail445 #203156 08/25/2019 11:02 AM
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I thought Irma was going south too.....

sail445 #203161 08/25/2019 12:24 PM
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It is pretty early to be predicting the exact path of Dorian.

For Safety :

There are indicators that we would add into our personal planning, especially in September, and October in the Caribbean. ( September Remember ).

One indicator is the warmer temps of the ocean which feeds the power of a hurricane. That water has been heating up all summer .

As to the path of Dorian, there is also the Coriolis Effect due the the spinning of the planet. In the northern hemisphere,
the Coriolis Effect tends to deflect objects to the right. And it is important in regard to cyclonic weather systems.
Look at the predicted path of Dorian, and it will show it will curve ....that is the Coriolis Effect.

They usually veer to toward the north .

As to hurricanes , again that is up to mother nature, and other weather systems as to tracks, and colder water to diminish their power .

For those heading down to the BVI during hurricane season, stay up on the hurricane centers updates. A short time ago,
most of you are well aware of the September hurricanes , Irma and Marie.


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

As to early predictions, and all of their computer models, and warnings, or guesses that the system will go to the south.... and base your vacation and
family safety on those early WAG's..... well, all of you have the choice to do what you wish.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Hurricane Fact : Now this was Kauai Island Hawaii. We had many hurricanes over many years headed across the pacific toward our island.
Many times the colder water, or wind shear, or hitting the neighbor islands high mountains first, the systems would lose strength or go to the south or
north of us....and those factors kept Kauai safe. Yep, could be lots of rain, high surf, and stronger winds, but not catostrophic.

Then came hurricane INIKI.....and everyone, as usual , was watching its progress, and the people prepared with loading up with provisions, plus
lots of water and shopping carts full of toilet paper. Cracked me up our first year there in COSTCO, with large carts filled and piled high with
T.P and bottled water. We followed the locals procedures.


The hurricane center tracking showed INIKI cat 4 was going to pass to the south of our island. But still the people prepared. And they still do.

It looked like a miss to the south, when all of sudden, in made a sharp 90 degree right hand turn to the north and hit Kauai full force dead center. The destruction
was horrendous. The month was SEPTEMBER. For the 10 yrs that we lived on Kauai, we and the island still continued to prepare for any hurricanes
headed toward the islands. It was never treated indifferently .

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The above is for your safety, and awareness, and perhaps share with those who are September and October visitors.

In the BVI , for many years there was no major problem ,,,,and the IRMA AND MARIE....

Your choice as to your vacation plans . Might possibly stay alert and keep up with the Hurricane Center Reports. it could increase
in intensity or just flat run out of energy and down grade or veer and be a total miss...

Another thought, Even without a direct hit, the weather and ocean conditions can be less than ideal for land or sailing fun in the BVI.

We pray that it will lose energy and miss the BVI, they do not need to go thru another Irma.


.




Last edited by captdennyj; 08/25/2019 12:35 PM.
sail445 #203181 08/25/2019 04:18 PM
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At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches)

GOOD Tracking Site:

http://vmcluster.wright-weather.com/model_tracks.html

sail445 #203196 08/26/2019 06:01 AM
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Great Site for tracking, thanks for sharing.

I also find www.Windy.com a great site for forecasting as well. https://www.windy.com/?15.178,-66.378,5


Last edited by mriley4955; 08/26/2019 06:02 AM.

I spent all my money on "Boats", "Broads", and "Booze"; the rest I wasted!


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sail445 #203305 08/27/2019 05:05 PM
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Track going more North. Still no warm and fuzzy. Strength is still low on the bright side.
G

GeorgeC1 #203307 08/27/2019 05:42 PM
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Dorian seem to be reorganizing a bit and the trajectory is a bit more northerly which should bring it about 40 miles closer to the VI.
Tomorrow mornings NOAA report will be the deciding factor.

sail445 #203319 08/27/2019 07:55 PM
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sail445 #203322 08/28/2019 12:52 AM
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TS warning issued

sail445 #203323 08/28/2019 12:53 AM
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Love to hear some updates from friends on island...

Manpot #203326 08/28/2019 05:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Manpot
Love to hear some updates from friends on island...


Oh Man! Friends on island....Updates when you can and please stay safe.

Last edited by ski2play; 08/28/2019 05:17 AM.
sail445 #203328 08/28/2019 05:35 AM
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It looks like the BVI will sustain tropical storm force winds and parts of the USVI will see minimal hurricane force winds. Hopefully overall damage will be light. Track has not followed projections however intensity has been right on. Max wind speed until North of the Virgins not predicted over 70mph. Fingers crossed that it does not strengthen!
G

Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 05:35 AM.
sail445 #203334 08/28/2019 08:53 AM
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NHC issued hurricane warning for USVI, PR, Vieques, Culebra at 0800.

I heard from our caretaker at Puerto del Rey, the marina is locked down at noon today. All the boats near us in the yard are secured and the hurricane straps are tight. I'm glad we are secured and not seeking shelter. This is a good test drive. But, we are missing living on the boat! Grenada next summer.

Cheers, RickG

ski2play #203337 08/28/2019 09:50 AM
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Originally Posted by ski2play
Originally Posted by Manpot
Love to hear some updates from friends on island...


Oh Man! Friends on island....Updates when you can and please stay safe.

Dark and heavy rain in CGB now. Had a strong initial burst of wind but I'd guess it's only blowing 20kts now. All the CGB webcams are still up!


JasonHelmbrecht
Coconut Breeze Villas
Cane Garden Bay
reservations@coconutbreezevillas.com
www.coconutbreezevillas.com
sail445 #203338 08/28/2019 10:02 AM
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Hurricane warning issued for the BVIs on the 11:00 AM guidance!! Stay safe, people!

From the NHC--

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations:

Northern Leeward Islands...1 to 3 inches.
Eastern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northwest
Bahamas...4 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches
Western Puerto Rico and the central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches
Coastal sections of the Southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected over Vieques, Culebra, and
the U.S. and British Virgin Islands today. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in portions of the
Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday but are becoming less likely
to occur.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase later today across the U.S.
and British Virgin Islands and along the southern coasts of Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola, and they could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

Last edited by Carol_Hill; 08/28/2019 10:08 AM.

Carol Hill
sail445 #203342 08/28/2019 10:55 AM
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The bad news is that it will be a direct hit on the BVI. The good news is the highest wind forecast at the airport is 50 mph. Really a tropical storm.
Edit: Still classified as a tropical storm.
G

Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 10:59 AM.
sail445 #203345 08/28/2019 11:36 AM
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Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty!


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RacerRon #203363 08/28/2019 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by RacerRon
Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty!


Sure glad no one tried to brave it out there! You just never know with some folks!


S/V Tortuga
Lagoon 46
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ligot #203367 08/28/2019 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by ligot
Originally Posted by RacerRon
Soggy Cam is starting to look kinda nasty!


Sure glad no one tried to brave it out there! You just never know with some folks!



Check out Cane Garden Bay cam. There are 3 Cats all riding nicely. Hardly a wave!


I spent all my money on "Boats", "Broads", and "Booze"; the rest I wasted!


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sail445 #203368 08/28/2019 01:17 PM
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Just upgraded to a Cat 1. There were boats in Cane Garden Bay earlier.

sail445 #203369 08/28/2019 01:18 PM
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Officially now a hurricane, 82 mph sustained at Buck Island USVI, with wind gusts of 111 mph!! Stay safe everyone!!


Carol Hill
sail445 #203384 08/28/2019 02:05 PM
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Peak wind so far at the STT airport 61knots or about 71 MPH

Last edited by GeorgeC1; 08/28/2019 02:22 PM.
sail445 #203388 08/28/2019 02:10 PM
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Guitar player for Da Tree Men
sail445 #203398 08/28/2019 03:27 PM
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Looks like the ghut by the Elm opened up into the bay.

sail445 #203402 08/28/2019 03:37 PM
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Just heard from a friend in STT that Road Town Fast Ferry broke free, still trying to get damage report. Also a large barge made it's way up on the rocks at Cruise Ship Pier park.


I spent all my money on "Boats", "Broads", and "Booze"; the rest I wasted!


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sail445 #203409 08/28/2019 04:19 PM
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Sure hope the worst is over! Love these islands and their people!

sail445 #203423 08/28/2019 06:42 PM
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Looks like Florida is next in line. Might be some out islands also ..

Last edited by RSki; 08/28/2019 06:44 PM. Reason: Add to

Rick
sail445 #203454 08/29/2019 10:06 AM
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sail445 #203465 08/29/2019 01:48 PM
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The Moorings reports no damage to boats or facilities.

GeorgeC1 #203480 08/29/2019 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by GeorgeC1
The Moorings reports no damage to boats or facilities.

Sure all their boats are still under repair from Irma

sail445 #203481 08/29/2019 07:16 PM
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That was a nasty blow here in STT - many have no power, lots of trees and branches down, some power pole snapped.
The 5am NHC update and satellite imagery showed a serious likelihood of direct hit on the VI's. I went full on shutters and prep at home.
Strong winds, torrential rains - will be a bit of recovery time in STT.

sail445 #203482 08/29/2019 08:20 PM
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Prayers for all affected, and those in the path!


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sail445 #203483 08/29/2019 08:28 PM
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Just chatted with Sherwin on Anegada. All is good and they have power.


Go Irish!!

Bill
RSki #203488 08/30/2019 05:48 AM
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Jim Cantore from the weather channel is at Waldos In Vero Beach. Not a good sign! I am considering evacuation from my Vero Beach home. Don't want to live in a box with steel shutters and no a/c I have a generator (from my old home) but it will not power up the a/c. Tracks and wind speed are not good. Same hurricane brushed my almost rebuilt Virgin Gorda home which was completely destroyed by IRMA

Last edited by tpcook; 08/30/2019 05:50 AM.

tpcook
sail445 #203490 08/30/2019 06:28 AM
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Oh dear tpcook!
Stay safe and we will be sending good thoughts to you and yours.

Our place on Jost came through Dorian like a rock star! We are grateful.
Even the newly planted coconut palms at Sandy Ground Estates are still standing!

sail445 #203492 08/30/2019 06:42 AM
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Something new coming off Africa
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

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