Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sun Nov 11 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms extending from near the Lesser Antilles northeastward over the tropical Atlantic for several hundred miles is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave and an upper-level trough of low pressure. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance have increased today, and environmental conditions are expected to gradually become more conducive for the development of a tropical or subtropical cyclone by the middle of the week. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward for the next few days, passing near or north of the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
An excerpt from the detailed tropical weather forecast discussion: Increasing thunderstorm activity, strong gusty winds, and building sea heights will accompany a tropical wave as it moves across the Tropical Atlantic Ocean waters and the lesser Antilles this evening and tonight. It is possible that a surface low pressure center may develop along the northern part of the tropical wave from Monday through Tuesday, as it continues westward across the E Caribbean Sea and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT.shtml
Translated: The possible development of the wave into an organized tropical or sub-tropical system is forecast to take place after it has passed over St. Maarten.
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