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BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 04 2017

...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE BRITISH AND U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 53.3W
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
islands of Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and
Nevis. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the British Virgin
Islands.

The government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Warning for
the islands of Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten.

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Warning for St.
Martin and Saint Barthelemy. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for
Guadeloupe.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, and the southeastern Bahamas should monitor the progress of
Irma.

48 hour outlook is 145 mph winds, when it is 20 miles from SXM..

...and long range, this thing is possibly headed for the Gulf of Mexico? Wow..

Response to BeachKitten on the other thread. Condo at Cupecoy Beach club, ocean front, but is on a cliff, just not much "realestate" in front of it. Hurricane shutters are down. Porches cleared out and it is first floor. Saving grace is it's the west side of the island. But remember Luis!

To Kim because I love you.........

Take a deep breath - I know it's a lot easier to say than to do but I'm thinking and hoping you and your new island home will be okay, all things taken in consideration. Those condos have withstood a lot of years and a lot of storms and you do have seemingly caring on-site managers who, by all appearances so far, go way out of their way to keep everything in tiptop condition.

And to all our island friends and acquaintances because we care......

Prayers for the people of the islands who, from the looks of things, may need every prayer they can get. Hopefully by now they've taken all the precautions and purchased all the necessary provisions, and like all of us, they wait. And there's still a slight hope the storm could veer out to sea and head further north, not that we wish this storm on anyone else or anywhere else. <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/handshake.gif" alt="" />

I got lucky today , we were due to fly in on the 9th, the owner of our villa gave me full credit for our rental without even asking for it and delta waved all the fees and returned all my skymiles used plus gave me a credit for my tickets to use at a later date. It just sucks that our vacation had to be canceled at the last minute. Our problems of canceling a vacation are very trivial compared to the residents in harms way those people need a lot of thoughts and prayers

Here is a link to the ST. Maarten Red Cross

http://afdeling.rodekruis.nl/afdeling/stmaarten/what-you-can-do/donor

Just read on FB that the airport is clsing on Tuesday at 2:00 pm

Good luck everyone !! Stay safe ! We went through Gonzalos (sp?) at Club O in studio #18 or #20 can't remember, and it was a horrible experience. They kept thinking it was going to bypass the Island, then it hit. Tiko Tiko ended up on the beach next to Papagayo. No way I would go through that again. Head to the airport and get out now if you can. You can always return when things have returned to normal.

Yup that's good advice for those that do not live on Island or vacationers. But there are people that need to stay, and those that need to oversee the damage...If you live there, or own property there!!! You need to face this head on. No one will repair but owners.. Yes stay safe, but there are people that can not just get off the Island. And there are those that will have to travel back to oversee damage...If your taking a vacation this week? Cancel for sure... the only invested interest for you is your vacation... I would not come on Island unless its free of this monster... For my long time friends in St.M. Gods speed... We know this has to bring back ugly memorys for you... Lets all pray this hurricane starts to pick up speed. Sitting and pounding is not good.

The 5:00 PM advisory from the NHC is not good. Now a Cat 4, with the forecasted track only about 15 miles NNE of Tintamarre.

Our thoughts and prayers are with you all.

direct hit... not good. No way, will this not cause destruction... How much? We that own or live there will know for sure... Others will just be troubled by vacations.. I wish I could feel bad but right now, I feel bad for property owners and residents...

I've been watching this for days and now I'm really worried for SXM. It's up to a Cat 4 with sustained winds predicted to be 150mph. Please folks, listen to the warnings and take shelter. This thing is getting close.

The Prime Minister of Sint Maarten had 2 meetings uploaded on YouTube where he talks about preparedness, etc
link

We are watching the track also. New Orleans could very well be in the "line of fire". However, right now our hopes and Prayers are with those of you on SXM and nearby.

I am so ready for hurricane season to be over - first Harvey, here in Texas where we live, now Irma heading to St. Martin, our favorite vacation spot & where we have many friends, then it looks like Irma may head to Florida, where our son lives in Tampa - will it ever end!!

September is hurricane month and it has just begun.

Know all about that - lived in South Florida for quite a few years & have been through 2 hurricanes - still want it to be over - as much as I like summer, I hate hurricane season!

Have to agree!!!! All it takes is one big one to shut everything down, and cause major destruction... this does not look good at all. God watch over my friends and please watch over our home...

Tampa hasn't had a direct hurricane hit since 1921. I hope that doesn't mean we're due.

I'm looking at projected tracks and intensities around the area, and I'm reminded of Luis. Hopefully, if Irma is that close, she'll have more forward speed and not linger over the island.

Crazy at airport today with so many people waiting on standby for already booked flights.
So some unknown reason American added a early morning flight
to Miami. Wife booked last 2 seats with some kindness from the sales agent at American.
Faith helped us find out about this flight.
Donated about $200.00 worth of food to friends that are riding it out. Had enough food, water and alcohol for several days, never even got to the cured meats, fish pates and cheeses. Certainly will miss several planned restaurants.
Our thoughts and prayers are now for those staying on the island.
Hope to have our first 9 days journal soon.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 050846
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRMA HEADING FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH 150
MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 57.0W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. In this case, for some of easternmost islands, the
hurricane conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within 36
hours.

Interests in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Turks and Caicos
Islands, Cuba, and the southeastern and central Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Irma was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 57.0 West. Irma is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the core of Irma
will move near or over portions of the northern Leeward Islands
tonight and early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
plane is scheduled to be in the eye of Irma within the hour.

Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next day
or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a powerful category 4
hurricane.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet
above normal tide levels along the coasts of the extreme northern
Leeward Islands within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water is expected to reach
the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the
time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...4 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...2 to 4 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by tonight, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within
the tropical storm warning area where hurricane conditions are also
possible.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches across
the northern Leeward Islands, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico. These rainfall amounts may cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF: Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. and British Virgin Islands
during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

I just read the 5:00 AM advisory as well. As noted in Jeff's post, maximum winds have increased to 150 MPH with this strength wind now expanding out to 45 miles (larger than the previous 35 mile core). Unfortunately, the latest track, which by now should be deadly accurate, has moved south a bit; earlier tracks had the eye passing north of Anguilla. Now the path directly hits the island in the middle. Given the wind speed projections, it looks as if all of SXM will be hit with these highest wind speeds.

The very thing we were all hoping not to happen appears to be a certainty. Not good at all.

I have no words, just tears... <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/cry.gif" alt="" />

ok. Bye bye house.... This is devastating for sure... And No one will be able to recover as there will be no electric, or water... I hope that most were able to prepare as best they could. We can not, as we are here stressing..

Please listen to official warnings and forecasters.

As an amateur, I was seeing it going south of Sxm with this aviation software plotting software I have days ago, despite the "expert models" saying going north.

I predict, Montserrat and Guadalupe straight on.

SXM is 95nm north of the eye in my plot and may get the edges. Storm would have to turn 13 degrees to the right for eye to hit Sxm.

That said any turm to the north is worse for Sxm.

This is a well defined storm. Now a CAT 5

Praying for structures to hold up to protect people. The rest can be cleaned up and repaired.

According to Island 92, most businesses are closed today. Restaurants must close by 5pm. Restaurants inside hotels can stay open. Curfew starts at 8pm tonight.

***Schools Closed on Tuesday. Curfew as of 8.00PM on Tuesday***

GREAT BAY, Sint Maarten (DCOMM) – Prime Minister William Marlin on Monday afternoon chaired his third Emergency Operations Center (EOC) meeting where he was briefed by various Emergency Support Function (ESFs) coordinators with respect to national preparations for the arrival of Hurricane Irma.

The country is now under a Hurricane Warning as of 11.00AM on Monday morning. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning area.

This warning is issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

School Closure Status:
Schools are closed on Tuesday, September 5 until further notice.

Government Closure:
Government offices are closed on Tuesday, September 5 until further notice. Emergency services will operate as normal. Essential services will operate as they prepare for the arrival and passage of Hurricane Irma.

Business Closure Status:
It is mandatory that all businesses including casinos close at 12.00 PM on Tuesday, September 5, with the exception of Supermarkets, Hardware stores, Restaurants, Pharmacies, Gas stations, and Bakeries, which are allowed to remain open until 5.00 PM on Tuesday, September 5, as they provide essential services/products in preparing for the hurricane.

Only restaurants on hotel properties are allowed to remain open after 5.00PM. Hotels are advised to make arrangements for staff at the property.

Curfew:
A curfew will be in effect as of 8.00 PM on Tuesday, September 5 until the passing of the hurricane and the damage assessment has been completed. Everybody should be off the road by that time.

Now Cat 5

So glad for you, that you were able to get out.. Prayers and best wishes to all on the island..

Category 5????? How the heck will the Island survive this? and god forbid it stalls... The very worst possible has now become a reality... Is this another luis? Will never forget that ever.

Hurricane Irma Special Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
800 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

This special advisory is being issued to increase the initial and
forecast intensity of Irma.

NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have recently
measured peak flight-level winds of around 170 kt and SFMR winds
of around 150 kt. Based on these data the initial intensity has
been increased to 150 kt, making Irma an extremely dangerous
category 5 hurricane. Some additional strengthening is still
possible, but fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next
couple of days due to eyewall replacement cycles.

No change was made to the previous track or wind radii forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected to affect the northeastern Leeward Islands as
an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane, accompanied by
life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall. Hurricane warnings
are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands. Preparations
should be rushed to completion, as tropical-storm force winds are
expected to first arrive in the hurricane warning area later today.

2. Irma is also expected to affect the British and U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico as a dangerous major hurricane beginning
tomorrow, with life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall.
Hurricane warnings have been issued for these areas, and tropical-
storm-force winds are expected to arrive in these areas by early
tomorrow.

3. Irma could directly affect Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, the
Bahamas, and Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later
this week. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Irma and listen to advice given by officials.

4. There is an increasing chance of seeing some impacts from Irma in
the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys later this week and this
weekend. Otherwise, it is still too early to determine what direct
impacts Irma might have on the continental United States. However,
everyone in hurricane-prone areas should ensure that they have their
hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1200Z 16.7N 57.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.0N 58.9W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 17.7N 61.5W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 18.6N 64.2W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 19.6N 67.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.2N 72.5W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 22.4N 77.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.0N 81.0W 130 KT 150 MPH

Praying for our little island and more importantly the wonderful people who inhabit it.... Crying inside and just had to post something

Liz

Godspeed SXM. You are all in our thoughts and prayers.

OMG...now Cat 5. Stay safe everyone...EVERYONE!!

This storm is unbelievable. It could very well be far more devastating than Luis. With maximum sustained winds at 175 mph it's inconceivable what the damage could be. We are just keeping everyone down there in our prayers.

Friends on Anguilla are EXTREMELY concerned!! <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/cry.gif" alt="" />
They spent the weekend selling and installing generators.

I am so worried for everyone.

I found this web site several years ago, storm carib . I've found it to be the best site for tracking hurricanes throughout the Caribbean. You can see how close a hurricane is predicted to come to any island, as well as local postings of individual warnings from several islands.

Gary, thanks. That letter that Dave wrote is spot on. Our forecasters in the US aren't mentioning the Caribbean except in passing, or related to Puerto Rico. If Puerto Rico takes a hit...they won't recover economically. Already bankrupt. No electricity for MONTHS if it goes out.