TravelTalkOnline Forums Travel and Vacation Forums St. Maarten - St. Martin Hurricane WATCH issued for St. Maarten/St. Martin

Where is 93L now - is it on the map you provided ?

It is just coming off the African coast and has a long way to go.

These are just computer models.

It is showing the same track as hurricane Luis 1995 <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Yikes.gif" alt="" />

Here's the NOAA view of it. I assume 93L is the one that shows up. If it keeps moving at 15mph it won't get to the Caribbean longitudes for at least 6 days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

It is expected to be upgraded on the 11am report. Have to watch it for the next couple of days to determine if it will be a problem or a fish storm.

Scary that it's moving that slowly; it has way too much time to strengthen before it makes landfall.

The issue is how far west that big Atlantic high will extend. It will decide where Irma actually goes, and Irma is growing more intense every hour.

I moved this here from the People Talk forum and will lock the other thread. This one looks like a really bad one. Fingers crossed!

I remember Louis like it was yesterday. the Island was crippled for a very long time. boats overturned in the water, houses crumbled all over the island. We who have a home could not get there to see or do anything, as no one was able to enter except med help... It took at least three years to see some normal on Island. Roofs gone, lots of local housing gone. All businesses down for a long time... I can pray that this does not happen, but than again, Louis sat on the Island for three days of pounding, worst ever. Please stay away, St.M. can not endure another major hurricane for sure...

Interesting. Don't remember seeing a video like that before from a Sint Maarten official. Hopefully everyone will prepare and it won't be needed..

it is 3000 miles away

Evan / Nina...just days away!I have your spot reserved for the weekend?

Pretty much every model now has it curving north of the entire island chain. Euro has a more westward motion, and is considered an excellent model usually, but there is the wisdom of the majority as far as all the other models showing it curving north.

I have a pic from Hurricane Luis 1995 it was taken on oyster pond road looking down on pre Oyster Bay Beach Resort. The Great House next to Busbys is in the pic. Oyster Pond yacht club was there as well.

The official NHC forecast doesn't go that far in advance, but it sure looks much closer than that to me. This is what I see on Storm Carib's 'how close can it get'.

Results for St.Maarten/St.Martin (18.05N, 63.12W):
The approximate Closest Point of Approach (CPA) is located near 17.5N, 58.0W or about 339.5 miles (546.3 km) from your location. This is corresponding with the 120 hour position of the 5-day forecast (Wednesday, September 6 at 5:00AM AST).


Just for 'fun'... If the storm would continue on this track, the extrapolated closest point (X-CPA) is estimated at 18.6N, 63.0W or about 39.4 miles (63.4 km) from your location, where it can be in about 5 days, 23 hours and 20 minutes from now (Thursday, September 7 at 7:24AM AST, be aware that this location is not part of the official forecast and is prone to large errors).

40 miles away from a monster hurricane is WAY too close.

People are already deep into preparation. No dry dock. Friends are on stand by list.
Bread, milk and booze are being bought. Generator filled. Branches being cut off.
This is real people. Even in Miami it's taken note.
Good Luck to us.
irina

Agreed, this one could be really bad. And best wishes to those in Texas and Louisiana, reeling from Harvey.

This model has it veering north....we all hope it is correct.

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display_alt.cgi?a=atlatrop_slp

It appears, according to the 11 AM Discussion on the NHC website, that there are two distinct groups of thought on Irma, one taking it more north and one staying south.

"There is a noticeable clustering of guidance by day 5, with the ECMWF, HWRF and
corrected-consensus models to the south, and the UKMET, GFS, CTC and
HMON to the north. Since Irma is forecast to be a vertically deep
cyclone, it seems more likely to respond to the northerly flow from
the upper-level low, which leads me to believe the track will be on
the southern side of the guidance. Thus, the forecast will stay
similar to the previous one, very close to the southern cluster
mentioned above. "

This is not looking good at all... We have a house on Island, and my husband is already thinking of damage.. Just put a new roof on last winter, that could be the first to go with high winds... Rain is not so bad, but winds are very damaging... Hope we get a miracle with this monster... Stressed is not the word, but hope everyone stays safe.....

Here is one more source from Boat US.

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/trackin...17#.WamDIsh96Uk

i hope irma shifts north really quick and fizzles out. thinking of all of you in the pathway. my husband and i are set to visit st. maarten next thrusday....

tiss the season... High risk. All it takes is one major hurricane to be remembered for years.. Been going to St.M for many years, and every year we fear the big one... Louis was a huge hurricane that caused not just damage but shutting down the Island. If this monster passes over? only hope is how fast it travel. If it sits on the Islands!!!!! big destruction... I know way ahead of the game, but very realistic. This one is scary..

Hi Sasasal,

It's Luis not Louis that caused all that damage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Luis
Good Luck
irina

To me that model looks like it is a hit on SXM and adjacent islands. The eye doesn't have to pass over the island to cause severs damage

sorry for the mistake in names. and thanks for letting me know. of cource it was Louis. Not sure you did not understand my reply. I was part of this hurricane, as we suffered the after effects. sorry you need to spend time on spelling or mistakes. makes no difference. and I do feel bad. thanks Irma. not everyone is free of faults. like you,.

Cat Fight

<img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" /> <img src="http://www.traveltalkonline.com/forums/images/graemlins/Clapping.gif" alt="" />

OK, guys let's just dial this down.. This is a very serious topic, and we need to focus on the issue.

What?

Anyway, we are watching very carefully here. And hearing from my friends on island, it's very stressful the way IRMA keeps wavering north and south.
We got lucky when we lived there but some big ones hit the US. Only got hit by Otto when we were there visiting B and it was quite impactful. No comparison to IRMA.
Good luck
irina

this is when I am so glad we sold our boat, not being ripped off by Bobbies.

From Mike's Weather page, my go-to site for severe weather updates: "Overnight models continue to build more consistency on future path of Irma. She could skirt just north of the Lesser Antilles... with PR/DR/Haiti close... then the Bahamas/US? The Gulf is looking less of a threat each hour. The SE and east coast of U.S. not as much unfortunately. High pressure showing up more in recent runs blocking Irma and keeping her more NW. Lots to watch. She is expected to fluctuate in intensity but still be a major most the way."

Don't be so fast to count it out. Things change in an hour and it's still a ways away.

I agree not to count it out yet. The models disagree by several hundred miles north and south. The high pressure has not even got there yet nor has the low pressure, both are what can change the path completely. The NHC said that it is basically use the middle of both models for its forecast at this time.

This post is Not an official forecast but only a computer model.

According to the track so far!!! It is headed right on top of the leeward Islands... We can hope it veers off, but even without the eye, This will be horrific.. We can hope it picks up speed, or else it will sit on the Islands. Folks are already being told to take precautions.. Do not like this one bit... Hope I am wrong in my fear...